Green party leads state election in Baden-Württemberg, dealing blow to CDU

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party faced a setback on 8 March, when it failed come first in a state election in Germany’s third-largest state of Baden-Württemberg.

In a close vote, the Green party finished ahead of the CDU with 30.2% of the ballot, making it likely they will run the state in a coalition with Merz’s party.

Elsewhere, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party almost doubled its result from the previous state election in 2021, coming in third place with 18.8% of the vote.

The result comes as both international and domestic polling suggests the chancellor has faced a decline in popularity since he took office roughly one year ago.

Data from YouGov’s European leader tracker shows that Merz’s net approval rating has fallen 34 points since June 2025. In February 2026, his net approval stood at -48, a sharp drop from -14 in June 2025.

The same study found that only 23% of Germans view Merz favourably whilst the large majority, 71%, view him unfavourably.

Domestic polling paints a similar, albeit slightly kinder, picture. According to the latest ZDF Political Barometer, 54% of Germans think Merz is doing a bad job as chancellor, while 43% rate his performance positively.

The same survey found that six in ten Germans doubt Merz can effectively lead the CDU in the future, with 34% saying they believe he can.

He also trails other German politicians in terms of personal popularity, scoring -0.5 on a scale of +5 to -5. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius tops this chart with a ranking of +2.1.

Why have Merz’s ratings fallen?

“The CDU/CSU and the government under Friedrich Merz promised during the election campaign that change would come quickly and reforms would be launched rapidly,” Debus told EU News.

He added that regional elections, such as the one in Baden-Württemberg, can be used as a barometer of national political sentiment, with voters using the ballot to signal dissatisfaction or approval of the federal government.

European leaders struggle in the polls

Merz’s weak standing reflects a broader trend of unpopularity across Europe. As the chart shows, several European leaders are struggling to win over voters.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron ranks last, with only 19% of French people holding a favourable opinion of him, according to YouGov.

His ratings have remained consistently low over the past year, dipping sharply between August and September 2025 and before recovering slightly earlier this year.

Macron is not alone in unpopular French leaders, who have historically received low approval ratings. In 2016, former French President François Hollande famously scored just 4% of support.

Elsewhere, the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer is rated similarly poorly, with just 21% of the British public holding a favourable opinion of him, and 71% who disapprove.

Both Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni rank higher, with 32% of Spaniards having a favourable view of Sánchez and 35% expressing their approval of Meloni. Both leaders have seen broadly stable ratings.

Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stands out as the most popular leader among the six, with 43% of Danes saying they view her favourably amidst US President Donald Trump’s renewed threats on the island of Greenland.

None of the leaders surveyed, however, were able to command a majority.

Debus noted that governments across Europe are facing difficulties in delivering on their campaign promises due to international crises, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, contributing to a weaker economic situation.

“For example, more funds may have to be allocated to defence rather than to other policy areas. This can contribute to general dissatisfaction among voters with governments,” he said.