France elections: How likely is a far-right victory?
France is voting in the second and final round of parliamentary elections today and the second-largest EU economy could elect a far-right government – the first since WW2.
Today’s election results will have massive implications for France, the EU and Nato.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap election has spectacularly backfired, he faces, at best, a hung parliament with no workable majority where his camp will be relegated to third place behind Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and a left-wing alliance of Socialists, greens and radical leftists.
All eyes will be on Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) and whether they will take office. An unlikely alliance between centrists and the left have cut the chances of the far right getting enough seats for a majority, but there is still a chance Le Pen’s RN could be elected, as not all centrists have joined the plan.
Result estimates should start coming through at around 8PM with official results coming in through the night.
Far-right Europe: Will the RN take office?
The far-right party National Rally (RN) could become the country’s next government.
The anti-immigration party came in first place in the first round of voting last Sunday, but their chances of an outright majority have since fallen as centrist and left-wing candidates reluctantly came together to try to block the RN from taking power. Hundreds of candidates across the 577 electoral constituencies in France withdrew from the races this week to prevent a split in the anti-RN vote.
The latest polls still project a win for the RN with 170 to 205 seats in the new chamber (compared to 88 in the outgoing chamber) according to Ipsos, placing them ahead of other parties but below the threshold of 289 for an outright majority.
The left alliance, dubbed the New Popular Front, was projected to get 145 to 175 seats, with Macron’s centrist coalition lagging behind at 118 to 148 seats (compared to 250 in the outgoing chamber).
But that doesn’t mean a far-right government won’t happen. Polls can get it wrong. It’s also possible that the RN will convince unhappy MPs from other parties to break ranks and secure enough support to form a government.
What happens next?
President Macron, who’s in power until at least 2027, will need to pick a prime minister from the party or coalition with the most seats in parliament. The far-right is projected to obtain the largest share of seats in the National Assembly, so Macron may be forced to tap its leader Jordan Bardella to form a new government.
Bardella might refuse to govern without his specified majority.
If Sunday night’s results do not make a National Rally government viable, other parties could see coalitions forming between parties.
- French election candidates withdraw in bid to block far right
- France’s Marine Le Pen says absolute majority still possible for far right
This election result will have a wider impact. The far-right stands a decent chance of forming a government in a nuclear-armed permanent member of the UN Security Council that plays a major role in global security from the North Atlantic to the Pacific.
The far right is also sceptical of France’s role in the EU and Nato and could see both weakened with an RN government.
There are also fears for the markets as traders across the globe fear political tensions will roil the world’s seventh-biggest economy and risk another bout of instability in Europe.