TL;DR
- The COP climate summit in Belem began amid concerns about a lack of engagement from key global leaders, particularly from the US, China, and India, who collectively contribute significantly to climate change.
- Despite the absence of prominent heads of state, high-level delegations and experienced negotiators are still present, indicating ongoing commitment to climate discussions.
- While past commitments have not been met, the COP process has shifted the global conversation and actions towards more sustainable energy solutions.
COP’s potential for change limited not by who turned up, but by the elephants not in the room
The COP climate summit in Belem opened with a diplomatic double-whammy.
The Prince of Wales and Sir Keir Starmer reaffirmed the UK’s commitment to fighting climate change and urged the rest of the world to do so, too.
But as the tropical rain beat down on the tarpaulin roof of this temporary summit venue, it’s hard not to feel the air going out of the process.
Sir Keir and Prince William’s presence doesn’t make up for the geopolitical weight of the elephants not in the room.
The leaders of China, the US and India – the world’s three largest contributors to climate change – are no-shows.
Donald Trump‘s highly-publicised decision to withdraw America from the UN climate talks is a blow.
Before Mr Trump, America – the world’s largest Economy, largest oil and gas producer, and major market for renewable energy – had serious deal-making power here.
Having formally withdrawn, there is no US delegation.
And, as far as I can tell, any US broadcasters either, so for Americans, this meeting may as well not be happening at all.
Without the US, things will be harder.
But does that mean the process is doomed?
The leaders of China and India may be absent but they’ve sent high-level delegations.
China is represented by vice-premier Ding Xuexiang, the country’s most high-ranking politician after President Xi himself.
And, while China and India might not be big on eco-messaging, between them they are busy driving the most rapid shift away from fossil fuels towards wind, solar and nuclear power the world has ever seen.
What’s more, the real work at these summits isn’t done by heads of state, but experienced sherpas, some of whom have trodden the nylon carpeted corridors of COP for 30 years.
It’s reasonable to ask what they’ve achieved in all that time.
The commitments of the Paris agreement of a decade ago have been missed by a wide margin.
The world is about to blow past 1.5 degrees of warming and almost certainly exceed two degrees as well.
But when the Paris deal was signed, the trajectory was for four degrees of warming.
There are good COPs and bad COPs, but the world is undoubtedly a safer place now than it would have been without them.