France’s Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a vote of no confidence this afternoon which could bring down his minority government.

“Perhaps, if one is permitted to draw a lesson at such a dramatic moment, his excess of programmatic Europeanism, coupled with a lack of pragmatic Europeanism, has ultimately turned against him. If he had succeeded in realising at least some of the projects he announced, if he had really dared to share with his allies the military and nuclear supremacy he wields in Europe, France and Europe themselves would not be reduced to this pitiful state today.”

“Interest rates would rise. The financial markets are worried about France. They don’t know which way our country is headed. … France’s attractiveness would decline. In recent years, since 2015, France has become more attractive to foreign investors. … But since the dissolution of parliament, investors have been asking themselves: should they invest elsewhere? Should they wait and see if France remains hospitable? Some projects have already been cancelled, others have been scaled back or postponed. The fall of the Barnier government would only fuel this spiral of mistrust.”

“The appointment of a new prime minister and a new government would significantly curb Marine Le Pen’s party’s influence. Right now, everyone realises that the future of the government lies in her hands, since it can only stay in power thanks to her goodwill. She is playing this card well by raising the stakes. If a new government is appointed in the near future, whether on a joint (undoubtedly more left-wing) basis or as a ‘technical’ government, her influence would be severely limited, if not reduced to zero.”

“Rather, the entire political elite must ask itself whether it has grasped the seriousness of the situation. France is sitting on Europe’s highest mountain of debt and needs to make cutbacks in order to preserve some budgetary leeway and not gamble away the dented confidence of rating agencies and bond markets. There has been no shortage of warning shots. And one thing is also clear: in the coming months, France’s ability to act will be even more limited than it already is. This is bad news for Europe, which should actually be worrying about other things in view of the geopolitical challenges.”

Today’s almanac, December 4 On December 4, 1977 Jean-Bédel Bokassa, also known as Bokassa I,…