Author: Jackson Lamb

Rising electoral support for Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is fuelling concern among business leaders as Berlin prepares to host a major investment summit. Executives warn that the AfD’s momentum could undermine Germany’s investment ambitions at a time of uncertainty for Europe’s largest economy.

The story shaping today

This morning, German business and foreign investors are watching the AfD’s recent gains with unease as Berlin hosts an investment summit aimed at restoring confidence. European industry faces a strategic split in the AI race. Reports also surface of Russian tankers using deception techniques, while US President Trump grants Russia a reprieve from fresh US sanctions. UK authorities update travel guidance for Belgium.

What matters most

AfD surge unnerves German business as summit opens

Ahead of a Berlin investment summit, the far-right AfD’s electoral rise is raising concerns among executives and investors about the stability of Germany’s investment environment.

Industrial giants take opposite routes on AI

Europe’s leading industrial firms are splitting in their approach to AI: Schneider Electric and Siemens are doubling down on software, while ABB focuses on physical equipment.

Russian tankers use location deception

Investigations reveal Russian ‘shadow fleet’ tankers faking their locations to appear in two places at once, a move seen as tightening Moscow’s operational control.

Trump exempts Russia from planned US sanctions

President Trump has granted Russia a temporary exemption from new mandated sanctions in return for a diesel release deal with Moscow, delaying further energy-related restrictions.

UK issues updated travel advice for Belgium

Britain’s Foreign Office has published updated safety, entry and legal advice for travellers to Belgium.

Power & Politics

The AfD’s growing appeal is dominating discussions in Germany’s boardrooms as corporate leaders weigh the risks of a changing political order. With the investment summit underway, some executives argue that further political instability could drive investors elsewhere, while others stress the need to reinforce Germany’s reputation as a reliable destination.

Markets & Money

Industrial strategies continue to diverge as Schneider Electric and Siemens pursue software-heavy growth, positioning themselves for AI integration, whereas ABB maintains its bet on core physical manufacturing. The divergence signals deepening competition among European conglomerates over technological leadership and investment appeal.

Conflict & Security

Allegations of coordinated location spoofing by Russian oil tankers indicate efforts to avoid sanctions enforcement and increase state control over energy flows. Meanwhile, President Trump’s decision to grant Russia a sanctions reprieve in exchange for diesel supply underscores how energy and geopolitics remain closely entwined for Europe.

Beyond the headlines

UK authorities have updated travel advice for citizens heading to Belgium, providing fresh guidance on safety, insurance and legal standards. The move highlights a wider trend of increased travel vigilance and shifting entry requirements across the EU.

What happens next

German executives and international investors will be watching for any signals from the Berlin investment summit that might restore confidence or clarify the country’s direction. The AfD’s impact on the political climate is expected to remain in focus for both policymakers and markets.

Climate & Weather

Active warnings are in place for moderate wind gusts in several coastal regions of Germany, including Kreis Aurich, Insel Borkum, and Hansestadt Lübeck. Meteoalarm Germany reports these warnings remain effective into 19 October 2026.

Worth knowing

Travel to Belgium: Britain’s Foreign Office continues to update its official advice, including entry requirements and legal information, for anyone planning to visit Belgium in the coming weeks. Check the FCDO for the latest details.

The story shaping today

The US military has restricted Ukraine’s use of Starlink internet on the battlefield, causing frontline disruptions as Russia intensifies attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid. President Zelensky has pledged to resume strikes on Russian oil refineries in response, raising tensions ahead of the US midterm elections. Markets remain unsettled as inflation bites and campaign spending surges.

What matters most

US restricts Starlink for Ukraine’s military operations

The US military has imposed new limits on Starlink’s use in Ukraine, disrupting operations and costing Kyiv a key battlefield advantage just as Russian missile strikes escalate and winter approaches.

Zelensky pledges to restart strikes on Russian oil refineries

In an interview with the Financial Times, President Zelensky signalled Ukraine will resume drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, defying pressure from Washington to halt such strikes.

Republicans ramp up ad spending ahead of midterms

GOP candidates have surged political ad spending, including in previously uncompetitive races, as the party seeks to seize momentum before the midterm elections.

Pope Leo XIV undergoes lung cancer surgery, recovery under way

Pope Leo XIV has had part of his right lung removed following a recent cancer diagnosis. Doctors expect a week’s hospitalisation, but his prognosis remains optimistic.

Commercial vessels targeted in Strait of Hormuz attacks

Two ships were hit by projectiles near the Strait of Hormuz, one sinking after a fire. Iran has warned vessels to seek approval before transiting the high-risk waterway.

Power & Politics

President Zelensky’s relaunch of long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries marks a return to tactics that directly target Moscow’s wartime revenue. The US is reportedly proposing that European nations transfer some frozen Russian assets to a vehicle under Washington’s oversight, aiming to revive peace talks.

Republican campaign spending now extends into former Democratic strongholds. Trump faces bipartisan criticism for relaxing sanctions on Russian diesel exports, a move described by some senators as “a gift to our adversary.”

Markets & Money

US chip stocks plunged as investors sought safety in Treasuries, rattled by persistent inflation and concerns over AI sector debt. London’s gold market has seen renewed momentum, with global instability and uncertainty over US economic policy driving physical trades in the City. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has announced the company has caught up with major rivals in AI and pledged further large-scale investment.

Conflict & Security

In Ukraine, the sudden Starlink restrictions—now confirmed by Musk to be under US government control—have interrupted logistics and drone strike capabilities at a critical time. Russia launched a fresh barrage of missiles at Kyiv, cutting power to hundreds of thousands as the capital braces for another brutal winter. In the Middle East, maritime tensions remain high following Iranian warnings and a series of attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz.

Beyond the headlines

The Vatican says Pope Leo XIV is recovering well from surgery to remove part of his lung. The health scare has led some to raise questions about his long-term ability to travel and serve, but doctors are optimistic about his short-term recovery.

In Hong Kong, Vincent van Gogh’s Chestnut Trees in Blossom—unseen for more than six decades—was put on display ahead of its expected record-breaking auction in New York.

What happens next

The US and European discussions about unlocking Russian financial assets for Ukraine remain at an early stage. Political focus now turns to the midterm elections, with inflation and energy prices set to dominate campaign messaging. It is not yet clear whether Starlink limitations for Ukrainian forces will be lifted.

Climate & Weather

No current US weather alerts or warnings were supplied for this period.

Worth knowing

• Zelensky has directly accused Trump of betraying Ukraine over Starlink restrictions and the recent US-Russia diesel deal.
• The Spectator reports the Green Party in the UK is facing a discrimination lawsuit from Jewish members following its new anti-Zionism policy.
• Bestselling author Sally Rooney’s books have been pulled from UK sale after her support for Palestine Action.

People & Power

• Donald Trump: Facing pressure to address high fuel prices and bipartisan criticism after suspending US sanctions on Russian diesel exports. Trump has urged Zelensky to halt strikes on Russian refineries and maintains intelligence-sharing with Kyiv, according to the Defense Department.
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Announced in multiple interviews that Ukraine will resume drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, criticising both Trump and US-imposed restrictions on Starlink and intelligence sharing. Zelensky described the situation as a loss of a “strong partner.”
• Elon Musk: Confirmed on X that the US government controls speed and usage limits on Starlink’s military network (Starshield) in Ukraine, with the Pentagon and President ultimately responsible.

Media Lens

• Foreign Policy led with the US military’s Starlink restrictions and detailed the operational consequences for Ukraine.
• Financial Times interviewed President Zelensky about Ukraine resuming strikes on Russian oil and US efforts to use Russian assets to incentivise peace talks.
• The Spectator highlighted Zelensky’s sharp criticism of Trump over both Starlink and the US-Russia diesel deal, quoting his statement on lost partnership and expected casualties.

Dates & decisions

• 18 November: Sotheby’s New York auction of van Gogh’s Chestnut Trees in Blossom.
• Next month: US midterm elections, with energy and Ukraine policy central campaign issues.