Macron to Propose EU Nuclear Deterrent Expansion in Speech on Monday

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What we know so far

France’s offer to expand its nuclear deterrent to the rest of Europe would in no way compete with the umbrella provided by the United States, Emmanuel Macron is expected to say on Monday during a speech on the topic.

The French President’s speech will be the first on the country’s nuclear deterrent since a 2020 address in which he said he was ready to “involve” European countries that wish to do so in exercises. It will be delivered from the Île Longue peninsula in north-western France, where the country’s four nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines are stationed.

“This will be an important moment in his term of office. There will undoubtedly be some significant shifts and developments,” a source close to the president said.

Macron’s 2020 offer was widely ignored, but the French president confirmed earlier this month at the Munich Security Conference that he had engaged in “strategic dialogue” with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and other unnamed EU leaders on “how we can articulate our national doctrine” on nuclear deterrence.

‘Growing interest among partners’

This newfound nuclear interest in EU capitals stems from a dramatic shift in the global geopolitical landscape operated since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump returned to power in the US.

The former event forced Europeans to reckon with the vulnerabilities and dependencies when it comes to their own defence, while the latter prompted many across the continent to doubt Washington’s commitment to Europe’s security.

The latest episode, which saw Trump threaten military force against fellow NATO ally Denmark to seize Greenland, only compounded those worries although European leaders and ministers have publicly stressed they remain convinced about Washington’s long-term commitment to its NATO allies.

The US has also made clear it wishes to partially withdraw some of its troops and equipment out of Europe as it seeks to pivot towards the Indo-Pacific. It is unclear still what this partial withdrawal will involve and how it would unfold.

But sources close to the president also underlined their belief that “we are living in a period that is fundamentally conducive to nuclear proliferation” with Russia developing new hypersonic missiles, China quickly expanding its own arsenal and the question of Iran’s future hanging heavy over the Middle-East.

“All of this is generating growing interest among partners,” one source added, stressing nonetheless that “this is in no way in competition with NATO.”

How an alternative can be articulated, though, remains unclear.

‘We are not engaged in an arms race’

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and the EU’s Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius have both also said it would be too costly and time-consuming for European allies to seek to replace the US nuclear umbrella.

France’s nuclear policy is one of so-called “strict sufficiency,” meaning that it limits the number of warheads it has to the number it considers necessary to inflict unacceptable damage on any opponent.

As such, it counts roughly 300 nuclear warheads in its arsenal – a number well below the more than 3,500 the US and Russia are each estimated to have.

“One element of our nuclear doctrine that is worth reiterating is our rejection of nuclear war. So we are not engaged in an arms race, so to speak, with the major arsenals. What is important is that our arsenal ensures our ability to inflict unacceptable damage,” a French source said.

France and the UK have already stepped up their own nuclear cooperation and coordination through the Northwood Declaration signed last summer. They now have a Nuclear Steering Group to provide political direction for this work and participate in each other’s nuclear exercises.