Haunted by Trump deja vu, Ukraine and its allies are in a perilous moment

There is a profound sense of deja vu surrounding the Ukraine crisis right now.

It was only a few months ago that European leaders rushed to Washington after Donald Trump appeared to align with Vladimir Putin at their Alaska Summit.

The Europeans gathered in Washington in August and appeared convinced that they had pulled Trump back around to their mindset: that unity and strength, not capitulation, is the answer for Ukraine.

Well, this week it is possible (some sources say probable) that European leaders will again head to Washington for another attempt to pull Trump back.

Ukraine live: Trump suggests peace plan ‘not final offer’

Ukraine and its allies head to Geneva

The meeting in Geneva on Sunday is absolutely pivotal.

It was billed initially as a meeting between the Americans and the Ukrainians.

But it has since morphed into a wider meeting with a number of European countries sending senior officials.

The core meeting is still expected to be between US envoy Steve Witkoff and the Ukrainians, but sideline talks will now take place with a much wider group of nations.

Many European leaders have spoken to President Trump on Friday and Saturday and plan to do so again.

I am told Keir Starmer’s conversation with him was “good, short but productive.”

Britain’s national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, will be in Geneva.

Over the last nine months, he has emerged as an important British influence on the Trump administration. He is close to Witkoff – who co-wrote or at least signed off on the 28-point plan.

However, the Powell-Witkoff relationship is clearly not close enough to have afforded the UK a heads-up on this latest peace plan.

‘Sudden injection’

One source told me that the “sudden injection” by the Americans had “been surprising.”

The American decision to put a rocket under the quest for peace in Ukraine appeared to have vice president JD Vance’s fingerprints on it.

The territorial elements of the peace plan are almost identical to a proposal put forward by Vance in the summer of 2024 before Trump won the election.

Vance’s stance on Ukraine has always leant towards questioning the point of it all. He led the attacks of Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Oval Office in February.

The US secretary of the army, Dan Driscoll, who has taken a lead in the conversions with Ukrainian officials, is a friend and ally of Vance – the two were at Yale together.

Vance has also been leading calls for his own administration to spend more time on “the home front”.

This sudden momentum on Ukraine could be an attempt to draw a line under it quickly in order to focus attention domestically.

The week ahead

So – things to look out for now: first, the Geneva meeting on Sunday – this is pivotal and will set the tone and the agenda for the days ahead. It is day-by-day at the moment.

Out of the Geneva meeting, a meeting of the European “coalition of the willing” countries will convene.

And following that, a contingent of European leaders heading to Washington seems likely – perhaps on Tuesday.

By Wednesday, America begins to wind down for the biggest holiday of the year – Thanksgiving.

Trump’s deadline for an agreement by Thanksgiving still feels improbable, but it’s not impossible that some sort of memorandum of understanding could be signed by then.

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This would ensure momentum remains in the process and Trump is kept encouraged on progress.

He has suggested that the deadline is movable, and that the deal proposed in the 28-point plan is not the final one.

Notwithstanding all this, there is no question that this moment, for Ukraine and for Europe, is perilous and ominous.