Cliff Notes

Donald Trump is betting that US airstrikes have effectively destroyed Iranian nuclear sites, despite military officials suggesting full destruction is unlikely and that the strikes may only set back Iran’s programme.
He gambles that Iran will refrain from retaliating against US bases and shipping in the region, hoping for a shift towards moderation and dialogue within the Iranian regime.
If Trump’s assessment is proven correct, it could signify a pivotal change; however, failure to contain Iran’s response may escalate tensions and impact his support base.

Trump’s two big gambles as US enters war with Iran

Donald Trump has rolled the dice. He is gambling on being correct about two key variables.

First, he is banking on being right that the Iranian nuclear sites struck by the US have really been “completely and totally obliterated”, as he claimed.

US military officials have frequently said destroying the whole nuclear apparatus would be very hard and the more likely outcome of air strikes would be to set the nuclear programme back.

The second gamble holds far more jeopardy. The president is betting Iran will not have the capability, or the guts, to hit any of the many US bases and diplomatic missions in the region or to meaningfully disrupt international shipping.

His hope is the moderates in the Iranian regime will now recognise their own strategic defeat and will adopt a position of dialogue and de-escalation.