As the June 9 European elections draw near, the presidential coalition finds itself facing a significant challenge as they trail far behind the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) in the polls. With a gap of at least 10 points separating the two parties, the presidential bloc is bracing for a tough battle on election night.
The lead candidate of the presidential coalition, Valérie Hayer, has struggled to gain the same level of recognition as Marine Le Pen’s lieutenant and the RN’s lead candidate, Jordan Bardella. Bardella has been avoiding debates, particularly on the topic of Russia’s war in Ukraine, while Hayer made a point of showing her support for the Ukrainian people by visiting Kyiv at the end of March.
In an effort to sway voters in their favor, the presidential bloc has been focusing on making Ukraine a key issue in the campaign. With the situation in Ukraine escalating and Russia making aggressive moves in the Donbas region, French President Emmanuel Macron has been preparing for a potential increase in military support for Kyiv. The threat of a potential return to power by Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election in November has added urgency to Macron’s concerns.
However, the strategy of centering the campaign around Ukraine may have unintended consequences. While it could help rally Macron’s supporters, it also risks giving breathing room to “pro-Russian” parties that had been largely silenced since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.
The recent debate at the Assemblée Nationale on the security agreement between France and Ukraine highlighted the divisions among political parties. Macron’s supporters, along with most of the right-wing Les Républicains, the Socialists, and the Greens, backed the agreement, while the RN abstained and the radical left La France Insoumise and the Communists voted against it.
With the election just two months away, the presidential coalition faces an uphill battle to close the gap with the RN and secure a strong showing on election night. The outcome of the European elections will have significant implications for the future direction of French politics and the country’s stance on international issues such as the conflict in Ukraine.