Day: 7 November 2024

China, after decades of mostly export-based growth, must now deal with massive problems of industrial overcapacity. The country is now trying to encourage more domestic consumption and to diversify its trading partners.

In very traditional Republican terms, he’s talking about tax breaks and reduced regulation. In terms of some of his specific pledges on the economy, he’s talking about getting rid of income taxation on tips and overtime. These things combined have the potential to be quite domestically inflationary, I would say.

He has, of course, proposed hitting China with 50% tariffs and then tariffs on all other imports of up to 20%, including for European countries. So they’re going to have to not only deal with that, but figure out whether they line up behind America on that, or whether they line up behind China on that as well.