Cliff Notes
- Donald Trump has expressed that supplying Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine could represent an “escalation” in the ongoing conflict.
- Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains “realistic” about the potential acquisition of long-range weapons but has refrained from discussing specifics.
- If provided, the Tomahawks’ extensive range could enable Ukraine to strike significant military and energy targets deep within Russian territory, although the US may retain control over target intelligence.
Ukraine war: Zelenskyy proposes ‘drone for Tomahawk’ deal at White House – but Trump warns of ‘escalation’ | World News
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Time will ultimately tell if Donald Trump gives Ukraine access to Tomahawk cruise missiles – although tonight he said they’d mark an “escalation”.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also refused to answer questions about the long-range weapons – see our 21:50 post for more on that.
Asked if he is more or less optimistic about getting his hands on them, he said he is “realistic”.
But, if Trump does come through with Ukraine’s coveted arsenal, how would Kyiv use them?
Tomahawks have considerable advantages over other missiles previously provided to Ukraine, such as ATACMS or Storm Shadow.
The biggest is their range, which stretches to about 1,550 miles (2,500km) for some variants.
That distance would allow Ukraine to launch from deep inside its territory and still strike targets inside Crimea and large swaths of Russia, including the Moscow area and beyond.
What targets could it go for?
Military targets would be near the top of Ukraine’s hit list, like the Olenya airbase, in northwestern Russia, and Severomorsk, where Russia’s Northern Fleet surface assets are home ported and a large air base, Severomorsk-1, is located.
Ukraine might also want to target Russian energy sites, which it has done dozens of times in recent months, hitting the country’s refining capacity.
Tomahawks could accelerate this dynamic, putting additional strain on Russia’s energy production.
Could Ukraine use Tomahawks however it wants?
Probably not.
Washington would presumably provide intelligence on targets and radar evasion, since the cruise missiles use US military navigation systems for guidance.
That means the Trump administration would ultimately have a veto over which Russian targets Kyiv wants to hit.