Ukraine pushes for NATO membership, but it’s complicated

Article 5 is the cornerstone of the NATO military alliance. It calls on all members to assist any other NATO countries under attack. Exactly how a member decides to aid allies, however, is up to them.

Since Russia’s February 2022 invasion outgoing US President Joe Biden has repeatedly vowed, “We will defend every inch of Ukraine.” Now Kyiv would like to slip under that umbrella of protection permanently. NATO has repeatedly said that this will be the case, without, however, setting a date. At some point, some observers think, Ukraine should be rewarded with NATO membership for its years-long defensive battle against Russia.   

NATO protection for part of Ukraine?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has now proposed allowing those parts of Ukraine that are free to join the alliance. Russian occupied areas in Eastern Ukraine as well as the illegally annexed Crimean peninsula (comprising some 27% of Ukraine), he said, would be excluded from joining for now. Zelenskyy hopes the move will thwart any further Russian advances, making negotiations for a ceasefire with Russian President Vladimir Putin possible.  

Technically, it would be possible to give Ukraine partial protection under the NATO Treaty. That is something that could be articulated in Ukraine’s accession document, which must be ratified by all 32 NATO member states. Article 14 of the NATO Treaty’s Supplemental Protocol already makes provisions for similar questions. Article 6 of the treaty outlines what regions are defined as NATO territories. Numerous French and UK islands in the Caribbean or South Pacific, for example, are not defined as NATO territories. During the post-WWII partitioning of Germany into the FRG (West Germany) and the GDR (East Germany), only the West was covered by the treaty. East Germany was a member of the Soviet Union’s military alliance, the Warsaw Pact.

Many NATO members not backing the idea

The question is whether Western partners — above all the most important of these, the US — have the political will to grant membership to those parts of Ukraine that remain free. German security experts, for instance, warn that such a move would greatly increase the risk of dragging NATO partners into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. When German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Ukraine on Monday, he voiced clear opposition to the plan proposed by Zelenskyy. Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg sees things differently. Shortly after stepping down as head of the alliance in October, Stoltenberg said fast-tracking NATO membership for Kyiv could end the war.

“Where there is a will, there is a way to find a solution. But you need a line which defines where Article 5 is invoked, and Ukraine has to control all the territory until that border,” Stoltenberg told the Financial Times newspaper. France, Poland and the Baltic states have all signaled that they could envision partial membership for Ukraine.

Hard to predict the ‘Trump factor’

When outlining his “victory plan,” Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has repeatedly called for NATO security guarantees for his country. Germany’s Major General Christian Freuding, who leads the Bundeswehr’s Planning and Command Staff, says Ukraine’s “back is against the wall.” That is why Zelenskyy has said he could imagine dropping plans to win back territory occupied by Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has, among other things, demanded NATO reject Ukraine’s bid to join the alliance, even partially.

It is unknown how incoming US President-elect Donald Trump will see things. The Wall Street Journal recently cited sources in Trump‘s inner circle as saying the new president may be looking to delay Ukraine’s NATO membership “by 20 years.” It is also unclear what Trump has in mind when he claims that he will end the war.

NATO boss Mark Rutte: more weapons, less talk

Speaking at the current meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels, NATO’s new Secretary General Mark Rutte said Ukraine doesn’t need any new discussions about how to attain a ceasefire, it needs more arms and more missile defense capabilities.

“I would argue, let’s not have all these discussions step-by-step on what a peace process might look like” said Rutte, emphasizing that the alliance must “make sure that Ukraine has what it needs to get to a position of strength when those peace talks start.” It is from this position of strength that Ukraine should negotiate with the Russian aggressor.

This article was translated from German by Jon Shelton