Cliff Notes
- The IMF has significantly downgraded the UK’s growth forecast for this year to just 1.1%, citing the adverse impacts of the global trade war and rising inflation.
- As tariffs between the US and China remain high, the IMF warns of considerable spillover effects on the global Economy that could exacerbate the UK’s economic challenges.
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to negotiate with officials in Washington, hoping for tariff reductions that could temporarily assist specific UK industries, though any gains may be limited and insufficient to address broader economic concerns.
UK economy will be among hardest hit by global trade war, IMF warns
Britain’s economy will be among the hardest hit by the global trade war and inflation is set to climb, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned – as it slashed its UK growth forecast by a third.
In a sobering set of projections, the Washington-based organisation said it was grappling with “extremely high levels of policy uncertainty” – and the global economy would slow even if countries manage to negotiate a permanent reduction in tariffs from the US.
Echoing earlier warnings about the risks to the global financial system, the IMF said stock markets could fall even more sharply than they did in the aftermath of Donald Trump‘s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement, when US and UK indices recorded some of their largest one-day falls since the pandemic.
It comes as Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares to meet her US counterpart Scott Bessent at the IMF’s spring gathering in Washington this week.
She is hoping to negotiate a reduction to the 10% baseline tariff the US president has applied to all UK goods. Steel, aluminium and car exports face an additional 25% tariff.
China and US war ripple effect across the world
As long as the world’s two largest economies are at war with each other, there will be considerable spillovers. The US and China account for 43% of the global economy.
The IMF presented a range of forecasts in its latest World Economic Outlook. Its main case looked at the period up to 4 April, after Mr Trump announced sweeping tariffs on countries across the world, ratcheting up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.
If the president were to revert to this policy framework, global growth would fall from 3.3% last year to 2.8% this year, before recovering to 3% in 2026.
In January, the IMF was predicting a rate of 3.3% for both years.
Nearly all countries were hit with downgrades, with the US expected to grow by just 1.8% this year, a downgrade of 0.9 percentage points.
Mexico was downgraded by 1.7 percentage points, while China and Canada are forecast to slow by 0.6 percentage points and Japan by 0.5 percentage points.
The UK economy is expected to grow by just 1.1% this year, down 0.5 percentage points from the 1.6% the IMF was predicting in January. Growth picks up to 1.4% next year, still 0.1 percentage points lower than the January forecast.