French PM forces social security budget bill without a vote, exposing his government to a no-confidence vote

France’s Prime Minister Michel Barnier faced an abrupt end to his premiership on Monday, December 2, after opposition parties said they would back a no-confidence motion against his government after only three months in power.

Certain that the Assemblée Nationale would deny him a majority backing the government’s social security financing plan for next year, Barnier forced through the bill without a vote, using article 49.3 of the French constitution.

The conservative premier, who formed a minority government in September after an inconclusive general election, has lived under the constant threat of a no-confidence vote that could force him to quit. The government could be toppled as early as Wednesday, when a vote is expected.

“I honestly believe that the French people will not forgive us if we prefer partisan interests to the best interest of the nation,” Barnier told lawmakers on Monday. “This is a moment of truth in which everybody must take their responsibilities. I am taking mine,” he added.

Immediately after he triggered article 49.3, radical-left opposition party LFI said it would table a no-confidence motion which the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) – the largest single party in the Assemblée – said it would vote in favor of, after accusing Barnier of failing to negotiate on some of the bill’s provisions. “We will vote no confidence,” the RN said on X. The far-right party has also tabled its own motion. The Socialist party, part of the left-wing opposition, told Barnier it would vote against him if he used article 49.3 to push through a budget.

No ‘miracle’

Marine Le Pen, the parliamentary leader of the RN has opposed several parts of the government’s 2025 budget plan, including the social security financing bill submitted to the Assemblée on Monday. In a last-ditch concession to the RN, the prime minister’s office said it was scrapping plans for a less generous prescription drug reimbursement policy from next year. It was uncertain to the last moment whether the nod to Le Pen’s concerns would be enough to save the day for Barnier, who has little hope of finding any left-wing support. But in the end the “miracle” – which RN party leader Jordan Bardella said was needed to avoid the no-confidence motion – failed to materialize.

LFI deputy Mathilde Panot said Barnier had sought to avoid the no-confidence vote by making “dishonorable” concessions to the RN. “On Wednesday he will get both, dishonor and the no-confidence vote,” she said, adding that the move would allow France to emerge from “a political impasse” and “political chaos”.

If the government falls, it would be the first successful no-confidence vote since a defeat for Georges Pompidou’s government in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was president. The life span of Barnier’s government would also be the shortest of any administration of France’s Fifth Republic since 1958.

Le Pen had already reacted icily Sunday after Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin said the government did not plan any further changes to the social security budget plan. “We have taken note,” she told Agence France-Presse (AFP), calling the stance “extremely closed-minded and partisan behavior”.

On Thursday, Barnier scrapped a previously planned increase on an electricity tax, in a concession to critics. Saint-Martin has highlighted that the budget proposals have already been discussed by a parliamentary commission ahead of Monday’s debate, which in the end never took place, and changed following talks between MPs. “To reject this text is to reject a democratic agreement,” he said.

The Senate, where right-wing parties have a majority, partly approved the 2025 budget Sunday, giving a green light to government revenue projections, in a vote boycotted by the left.

Financial situation

Saint-Martin warned that the fall of the government would raise the risk premium on French government debt that has reached rare heights because of the country’s shaky financial situation.

France escaped a debt downgrade by S&P last week, with the ratings agency saying that “despite ongoing political uncertainty, we expect France to comply — with a delay — with the EU fiscal framework and to gradually consolidate public finances”.

Barnier has promised to improve France’s fiscal position by 60 billion euros ($64 billion) in 2025 in the hope of cutting the public-sector deficit to five percent of gross domestic product, from 6.1 percent of GDP this year.

France escaped a debt downgrade by S&P last week, with the ratings agency saying that “despite ongoing political uncertainty, we expect France to comply – with a delay – with the EU fiscal framework and to gradually consolidate public finances.” Barnier has promised to improve France’s fiscal position by €60 billion in 2025 in the hope of cutting the public deficit to 5% of gross domestic product, from 6.1% of GDP this year.