German’s urge Ukraine to curb male refugee numbers

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has joined calls from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party Christian Social Union (CSU), to reduce the influx of young Ukrainian men into Germany.

In a phone call last Thursday, Merz urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to “ensure that young Ukrainians in particular” do not “come to Germany in increasing numbers.” Instead, they are expected to serve in their homeland, where they are needed, he said in Berlin.

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Markus Soeder, Bavarian Prime Minister and head of the CSU, was the first high-ranking German politician to make similar comments. In an interview with the German tabloid Bild, Soeder called on the EU and the German government to put pressure on Kyiv to “control and significantly reduce” the influx of young men fleeing Russia’s war of aggression to Germany. The CDU Secretary General Carsten Linnemann also made similar comments.

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In late August, Kyiv allowed young men aged 18 to 22 to leave the country. Previously, this was not permitted, even though this age group is not drafted into the Ukrainian army.

According to the German Interior Ministry, the number of weekly arrivals in this age group rose from 19 in mid-August to 1400 to 1800 in late October. In total, more than 1.2 million refugees from Ukraine live in Germany.

The oppositional Social Democrats (SPD) have not yet taken a clear position in this debate. Ralf Stegner, a member of the German parliament for the SPD, said that he finds it difficult to call on young Ukrainians to serve their country as soldiers. “The most important thing is that we all do our part to ensure that this war ends as soon as possible,” he said, adding that “this seems more important to me than focusing on migration, which is often the backdrop for such initiatives. We should treat those who come to us, for example as war refugees, fairly.”

What is Berlin’s agenda?

According to Stefan Meister of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in Berlin, one of the reasons for Merz’s appeal to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is the German government’s goal of restricting migration to Germany. The German chancellor is concerned that young men, whom Ukraine needs, are leaving their country. But he is also keen to deliver on his election promises.

However, this does not only apply to people from Ukraine. The goal of limiting immigration is part of a broader debate about refugees and migrants in Germany. In total, Germany has taken in “more than one million Ukrainians,” a number that “is actually placing a noticeable strain on the German system,” Meister said.

In this context, the political scientist also accuses the chancellor of “a form of populism” and points out that the German far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) is putting pressure on the CDU with this debate.

Several observers also view the recently introduced reform of Germany’s basic income benefit scheme as a message to potential AfD voters. The reform includes a reduction in benefits for Ukrainian refugees who arrived in Germany after April 1, 2025, aligning them with those of asylum seekers. In numbers, this means that they will receive around €120 ($139) less per month. Until now, single Ukrainians have received around €560 per month, plus rent, heating costs and health insurance. In the future, state support is expected to be reduced to around €440, and healthcare will also be scaled back.

“Merz is right,” Winfried Schneider-Deters, a political scientist and journalist who lives in Ukraine and Germany, told EU News on X. “It is grotesque that the German chancellor has to remind the Ukrainian president that young Ukrainians are ‘needed’ there, before ‘reconstruction’ starts, as soldiers,” he said.

Can Germany restrict entry?

According to Stefan Meister, the appeal by the German chancellor stems from Germany’s limited ability to restrict entry for Ukrainians.

They have the right to stay in the EU for up to 90 days per year without a visa. In addition, following the Russian invasion in February 2022, Europe granted all Ukrainians temporary protection, including work permits. This regulation was extended until March 2027. However, Meister suspects that the recent increase could also be seasonal. “More people arrive in winter, and some leave again in spring,” he told DW.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has yet to comment on the matter.

However, Meister and Schneider-Deters doubt that Kyiv will give in to the German chancellor’s request. “That would be a very unpopular decision in Ukraine,” Meister predicts. The expert argues that Europe and Germany should instead supply more weapons to Ukraine’s army.

What do Ukrainians in Germany think?

Iryna Schulikina, executive director of the Ukrainian non-governmental organization “Vitsche” in Berlin, shares this view. “Ukraine needs people, but it also needs weapons. It is crucial that European countries, including Germany, finally stop financing Russia’s war by buying oil and gas,” Schulikina told WTX.

“You also have to consider the people we are talking about here,” she said, pointing out that in Germany, young people between 18 and 22 have just finished school; their parents often still pay for their health insurance, and they still receive child benefits. “Why should young people suddenly stop being adolescents just because they come from Ukraine? Their lives have been marked by 11 years of war, the last four by Russia’s full-scale invasion,” Schulikina told WTX News.

In her view, Ukrainians won’t stay abroad for good. “That is manipulation. Many are returning, many are planning to return, many are studying to be useful to their country in the future. Statements that seek to solve the problem by putting pressure on Ukrainian children are not only wrong, but also hypocritical,” she said.

However, publicist Schneider-Deters remains skeptical. He does not believe that most young Ukrainians will return to their homeland after the war.

Many Ukrainians plan to stay

One in two refugees from Ukraine would be willing to return, however, only under certain conditions, such as the restoration of the 1991 borders, security guarantees through NATO membership, and the prospect of EU accession, a study by the Munich-based research institute if found in October 2025. For the survey, Ukrainians in 30 European countries were interviewed.

However, the proportion of those who want to stay in Germany is higher. The study states that 59% of those who fled in the first months of the war and 69% of those who arrived later have no interest in returning to Ukraine.

Various estimates suggest that between 300,000 and 400,000 of those who came to Germany since 2022 have either returned or moved to another country.