- Gaza death toll likely 40% higher than official figures a UK-led study finds
- Researchers suggest the real death toll is closer to 64,260 (for the first nine months)
- The researchers used a statistical method called “capture-recapture”
Gaza death toll likely 40% higher than official figures, study finds
A study published in The Lancet estimates that Gaza’s death toll from the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war is 40% higher than reported. While Gaza’s health ministry recorded 37,877 deaths by June 30, 2024, researchers suggest the real figure is closer to 64,260.
Key Findings:
- The study combined ministry data, an online survey, and social media obituaries.
- The death toll may range between 55,298 and 78,525.
- 59% of the dead were women, children, and the elderly.
- The toll reflects deaths from traumatic injuries but excludes fatalities from lack of healthcare, food shortages, or those missing under rubble.
This adjusted toll represents 2.9% of Gaza’s pre-war population, equivalent to one in 35 inhabitants.
The researchers used a statistical method called “capture–recapture” that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.
The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza Health Ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.
The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.
The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.