Europe launches defense push amid Russia threat, US worries

The European Union (EU) on Wednesday presented a white paper laying out plans to facilitate member states’ rearmament amid growing concerns that the continent may not be able to depend on support from the United States in the face of Russian aggression.

“The international order is undergoing changes of a magnitude not seen since 1945,” said the EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, the former prime minister of Estonia. “This is a pivotal moment for European security. It is a pivotal moment for action.”

What does the EU defense white paper propose?

Earlier this month, Brussels unveiled a raft of proposals to mobilize up to €800 billion ($875 billion) through EU-guaranteed loans and a relaxation of the bloc’s fiscal rules to allow states to spend more on defense.

Wednesday’s white paper, published by the European Commission, the EU’s primary executive arm, puts flesh on the bones of those plans by setting a concrete timeline for countries to react by pooling resources on joint defense and buying more European arms — starting next month.

“Regardless of the ongoing negotiations for peace in Ukraine, this is a long-term investment in [response to] a long-term plan of aggression,” Kallas said, referring to a Russian economy, which she said was in “full war mode” with 40% of its federal budget going on military expenditure.

EU countries ramped up their collective defense spending by over 30% between 2021 and 2024 in response to Russia’s threats against and then full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Poland and the Baltic states, countries with lived memories of occupation by the Soviet Union and land borders with the Russian Federation, are already spending significantly more than the NATO threshold of 2% of GDP.

German lawmakers on Tuesday took the seismic step of voting for a colossal defence and infrastructure spending package proposed by the likely incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz.

But their efforts have acquired more urgency as a result of the apparent rapprochement between Moscow and Washington since the return of US President Donald Trump to the White House.

“450 million EU citizens should not have to depend on 340 million Americans to defend ourselves against 140 million Russians who can’t defeat 38 million Ukrainians,” said EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, the hawkish former prime minister of Lithuania.

“We really can do better,” he added. “It’s time for us to take responsibility for the defense of Europe.”

What about non-EU countries?

Key to the new defense blueprint is a proposal to allow EU member states to take out centrally backed loans together, which would also have the effect of encouraging closer defense cooperation and the procurement of compatible equipment.

According to an analysis by New York consulting firm McKinsey, European armies currently operate 19 different main battle tanks (compared to just one in the US Army) and 17 types of torpedoes (compared to just two in the US).

The white paper also foresees mechanisms to enable the involvement of non-EU countries such as Norway, Turkey, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan — and indeed Ukraine.

As an official EU candidate country, Turkey can already take part in certain common procurement projects, while a bespoke defense cooperation deal would have to be agreed with the UK, which left the bloc in 2020.

One EU diplomat told the Reuters news agency that the white paper reflected the “threat and urgency” of the challenge facing the 27-member bloc but did not go far enough on ways to boost funding.

“All in all there is no big bang,” they said.

Indeed, the proposals steered clear of recommending a comprehensive program of joint borrowing, despite some EU countries arguing that the bloc would benefit from a massive infusion of cash comparable to that pumped in during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Right now, it’s just not there,” Kallas said. “But is it completely off the table? I don’t think so.”

Moscow has condemned the EU’s rearmament push as an incitement to war based on an “invented story” of a Russian threat — words that have not reassured European leaders since similar statements were made prior to the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

“If Russia is allowed to achieve its goals in Ukraine, its territorial claims will expand,” warned the EU Commission in the white paper, adding: “Russia will remain a fundamental threat to the security of Europe for the foreseeable future.”