Escalations in conflict in Thailand’s deep south. Will it ever see peace? 

Escalations in conflict in Thailand’s deep south. Will it ever see peace? 

Since January 2004, Thailand’s deep south has seen ongoing conflict between Thai military forces and separatist groups seeking greater autonomy.

The violence is largely confined to the country’s three southernmost provinces, Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala — home to a Muslim Malay majority in the predominantly Buddhist nation.

The region, located along the Thai-Malaysia border, has seen over 23,000 violent incidents, leading to more than 7,000 deaths, according to Deep South Watch, a local think tank.

The Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), the dominant separatist group, has been implicated in attacks targeting civilians, including Buddhist monks and schoolteachers, according to Human Rights Watch.

Between January and early May this year, 38 violent incidents were recorded — almost as many as in all of 2024. Don Pathan, a Thailand-based security analyst, points to two attacks as key escalations. 

The first came after Thailand’s National Security Council and the BRN failed to reach a Ramadan ceasefire agreement in March, after which Thai Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai insisted that all violence must stop before talks resume.

The BRN responded with a March 9 attack on Narathiwat’s Sungai Kolok District Office, wounding 12 people and killing two volunteer defense officers.

The second major incident came after the April 18 killing of senior BRN member Abdulroning Lateh, which saw the insurgents escalate beyond the rules of engagement in conflict by targeting civilians.

A brutal attack came on May 2 when a gunman shot dead at least three people in a residential area of Narathiwat province, including a 9-year-old girl, a 75-year-old man and a 76-year-old blind woman.

In response, Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra deployed more troops to the region to bolster security.

Last week, Deputy PM Phumtham Wechayachai said that the Thai government is willing to engage in peace talks.

Thaksin vows to achieve peace

Tita Sanglee, an associate fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, believes both politicians’ efforts are symbolic rather than practical. 

“Paetongtarn and Phumtham’s peace efforts are more symbolic than substantive. We all know that the situation on the ground is not really conducive to peace,” she said.

“Phumtham’s stance, at least early on, was quite tough. He was basically saying, ‘we won’t engage in talks unless the BRN proves its legitimacy by ending violence on the ground’.”

“I see this largely as a way to shift scrutiny onto the insurgents — and ultimately to shield the young and inexperienced prime minister,” Sanglee said, suggesting that controlling the narrative seems to be the government’s priority.

Thaksin Shinawatra, who was Thai PM when the insurgency renewed in 2004, has also become involved to help find a solution. He visited the region in February and said that he expects to see a complete end to the unrest by next year.

What is Malaysia’s role in finding peace?

Thailand’s ruling Pheu Thai party, which is strongly influenced by Thaksin, has since faced pressure to act.

Tita said the former PM’s pledge has pushed the government to respond.

“In light of Thaksin’s public pledge to end the Deep South’s unrest by next year, there’s a real need for the Pheu Thai government to demonstrate that it is taking the issue seriously and is actually doing something,” she said.

Thaksin is an informal adviser to ASEAN chair Anwar Ibrahim, who is also the prime minister of Malaysia, which has been urged to take a greater role in peace efforts.

The last official meeting about a peace solution between Thai government representatives and the BRN was in June 2024.

But in a post on social media this month, Paetongtarn said Malaysia is now crucial for any upcoming rounds of peace talks.

Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based security analyst, said Malaysia could have more of an impact on reducing the hostilities.

“The Malaysians could arguably be doing more in terms of reining in BRN. Some elements almost certainly knew in advance that a Ramadan offensive was coming and apparently did nothing to head it off,” he said, adding that Malaysia’s role as “facilitator” limits its actions.

“There are also questions as to how far PM Anwar is focused on the Patani issue and whether he could afford the domestic political blowback of hard-knuckle moves against BRN leadership inside Malaysia when ultimately this is a Thai problem,” he added.

Don Pathan believes Thailand should look at the BRN proposal, rather than relying on Malaysia.

“Malaysia is not exactly an honest broker; Malaysia is a stakeholder. The country shares the same border and the same religious and cultural similarities as the Malays of Patani,” he said.

Pathan suggested that the Thai government should take seriously the BRN’s counterproposal made in February, which included “setting up a negotiating team, releasing political prisoners, and allowing international observers to monitor a ceasefire.”

“The BRN has said it is willing to negotiate under the Thai Constitution. BRN and the Patani Malays are willing to be part of the Thai state. But it has to be on their terms,” he added.