Conservative leadership race: The TV debates could help decide next PM

Conservative leadership race: The upcoming TV debates that could help decide the next PM

The Conservative leadership race is heating up. We’re currently down to the final five candidates after Suella Braveman was knocked out of the race on Thursday. 

The next voting round is on Monday when another candidate will be knocked out. More rounds will follow until we’re down to our final two. 

But before Monday’s round, there are set to be three TV debates. The TV debates have the ability to catapult or crush a hopeful’s chances. 

When are the TV debates? 

Today will see the first debate on Channel 4 at 19:00 BST. 

Followed by a second debate on Sunday on ITV at 19:00 BST.

And on Tuesday Sky News will host the final debate again at 19:00 BST. 

• David Frost urges Kemi Badenoch to step aside for Liz Truss

The TV debates are massively important, there’s everything to gain for the race outsiders who could snag one of those final two places. 

Since the first two rounds, the top three have always stayed the same. Rishi Sunak is in the lead, Penny Mordaunt in second place and Liz Truss trailing in third. 

It’s likely Rishi Sunak will snag one of the two golden tickets to the final run-off decided by Tory party members – providing the debates aren’t a colossal failure on his part. 

But the second place isn’t as obvious as it may seem. 

Truss may seem to be miles behind Penny Mordaunt, but her team have always believed the “natural ceiling” of her parliamentary support is higher than Mordaunt – despite the results from the first two rounds. 

But Team Truss might be right. 

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Suella Braveman, who was knocked out in the second round, told the BBC’s Chris Mason that she will now be supporting Liz Truss. It is believed most of Braverman’s followers will now support Truss too.

A recent article in the Daily Telegraph by former Brexit minister Lord Frost stated his support for Liz Truss and also served to knock Mordaunt – who he says lacks detail. 

Frost – an unelected Lord – argues Kemi Badenoch should give up and rally around Liz Truss and unite the right of the party. 

But Team Kemi say she has no plans to give up and is in it to win it.

It still seems unlikely Kemi Badenoch has a chance to make it to the final two and so it’s reasonable to wonder where her supporters will shift to if/when she is knocked out. 

It’s unlikely large numbers of Team Kemi will switch to Penny Mordaunt. There is also the case of Tom Tugendhat – another candidate likely to be knocked out early next week, and where his supporters might go to.

Team Kemi and Team Tugendhat supporters have the ability to stop Penny Mordaunt from the final two and instead place Liz Truss in second – a scenario Rishi Sunak would much rather face considering Mordaunt is miles ahead in several pollings amongst Tory party members. 

The race to No 10 is truly unpredictable. Penny Mordaunt has already surprised many and her team could have the confidence and freshness to win over Tory MPs wanting to distance themselves from Boris Johnson’s government. 

TV debates are unpredictable but one thing is sure: they will make the Sunday papers a good read. 

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