Cliff Notes – Can Leverkusen actually beat Bayern to the Bundesliga again
- Bayer Leverkusen’s recent comeback victory against VfB Stuttgart has intensified the title race, narrowing the gap to Bayern Munich, who currently hold a six-point lead.
- Bayern faces significant challenges with key injuries to players like Manuel Neuer and Alphonso Davies, while Leverkusen must maintain perfect form to overtake them in the final weeks of the season.
Can Leverkusen actually beat Bayern to the Bundesliga again?
Regular consumers of this column know its writer can rarely resist a good German compound word to sum up concepts that cannot as readily be covered in English. This week, as we take stock of the Bundesliga during the March international break, the word most applicable to what’s going on is “Aufholjagd” (“race to catch up”).
For those who follow a football league purely for a title contest, Bayer Leverkusen’s Aufholjagd had double meaning just before the international break. Their stirring, pulsating — not to mentioned fully merited — 4-3 comeback win at VfB Stuttgart, a day after Bayern Munich stumbled to a draw in the capital against Union Berlin, allows us to view the top two and their back-and-forth in a slightly different light.
Yes, it’s Bayern’s title to lose and there will be those who feel we are still in Vorentscheidung (a decision before mathematically guaranteed) territory.
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The positives for the Rekordmeister are multifold. A six-point lead with eight weeks to go is effectively a seven-point gap, given Bayern’s vastly superior goal difference, so a simple scenario is Leverkusen would have to be perfect from here on in, while Bayern would have to not lose on three occasions, with one of the three being a defeat.
Where are the potential Stolpersteine (stumbling blocks)? Considering the Bavarians have just lost to VfL Bochum and drawn with Union, that is difficult to ascertain. It could as easily be St. Pauli on Saturday, as it could be Borussia Dortmund in mid-April, Mainz in late April or RB Leipzig away in early May.
The personnel narrative is not currently kind to Vincent Kompany’s defensive priorities. Manuel Neuer remains out with a calf injury, while earlier this week, the news broke that Alphonso Davies will be out for several months with an ACL tear and Dayot Upamecano for most of the Endspurt (the race to the finish).
Bayern also must balance the demands of pushing for a much-desired Finale dahoam (a UEFA Champions League final at home). They’re still far from that goal, and a two-legged meeting with Inter Milan represents ein harter Brocken (a tough nut).
Even if Bayern slip up somewhat frequently in the Bundesliga run-in, can Leverkusen reel off eight successive wins between now and May 17? Their task is not helped by the absence of Florian Wirtz for a fair chunk of April at a minimum. In addition, Edmond Tapsoba and Mario Hermoso — both on the injured list — have weakened Xabi Alonso’s options at the back.
One intriguing aspect of Friday’s home game with Bochum will be whether Bayer 04 try to solve the Wirtz problem by fielding both forwards Patrik Schick and Victor Boniface from the start, something that is not second nature to Alonso, even though it worked in the heat of the Stuttgart Aufholjagd.
Just a few weeks ago, Bayern’s Bundesliga lead looked insurmountable. Then they dropped points in two straight. Joris Verwijst/BSR Agency/Getty Images
Will Leverkusen finish ahead of Bayern when the music stops? Let’s just say it would take a well-nigh unprecedented swing of the pendulum this late in a Bundesliga campaign along the lines of Stuttgart overtaking Schalke in 2006-07, but I’ve been around long enough to know that you should never say it can’t happen.
Further down the order
I understand that many casual fans need a title battle to get them interested, but this is a week for once again highlighting that to truly enjoy and embrace a football culture, it’s important to go deeper.
Mainz are writing one of the most romantic stories anywhere in European football. To be third with 45 points at this juncture feels heaven sent for a club that has never got within a sniff of the Champions League, despite a rich pedigree when it comes to coaches like Jürgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel.
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FRIDAY, MARCH 28 (all times ET)
• Leverkusen vs. Bochum (3:20 p.m.)
SATURDAY, MARCH 29 (all times ET)
• Fulham vs. Crystal Palace (8:10 a.m.)
• Bayern vs. St. Pauli (10:20 a.m.)
• Espanyol vs. Atlético (11 a.m.)
• Pride vs. Wave (NWSL) (12 p.m.)
• Real Madrid vs. Leganes (3:50 p.m.)
SUNDAY, MARCH 30 (all times ET)
• PSV vs. Ajax (8:25 a.m.)
• Preston North End vs. Villa (8:25 a.m.)
• Barcelona vs. Girona (10:05 a.m.)
• Bournemouth vs. Man City (11:25 a.m.)
• Dortmund vs. Mainz (11:25 a.m.)
Bo Henriksen, the extroverted, long-haired Dane, originally charged with securing the Klassenerhalt (keeping them up) has worked wonders with a somewhat-limited squad compared to the majority of Bundesliga clubs. Mainz have been powered by a superb team ethic and key contributions from Jonathan Burkardt (15 goals), Nadiem Amiri (who has just returned to the Germany squad) and inspirational locally raised goalkeeper Robin Zentner.
There is quite the tussle for the two remaining Champions League places, and any of Mainz, Eintracht Frankfurt, Leipzig and SC Freiburg could realistically claim them, although Borussia Monchengladbach can’t be counted out.
Where does this leave Dortmund, who host Mainz this weekend? Even if they win, likely still in limbo. It would take something quite miraculous on the Aufholjagd front for BVB right now to reach any European competition, let alone the Champions League.
I will confess that Abstiegskampf (relegation fight) drama is very much to my liking, and it has been cemented by regularly covering the chaos of the two-legged Relegation, a false friend of a word because it means in German a relegation playoff rather than demotion itself.
A 16th-place finish gets you into the Relegation against the third-placed side in the second tier, so as it stands, it would be Bochum — the Aufholjagd heroes from last season — against Fortuna Düsseldorf in the end-of-season spotlight again. Bochum this week announced a contract extension for coach Dieter Hecking if he keeps them in the Bundesliga.
The Revierklub looks to me to have the edge over Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel, and I won’t be shocked if clubs like TSG Hoffenheim and St. Pauli, who currently have a bit of breathing space, get dragged into a scrap to avoid 16th and correspondingly the Relegation.
Enjoy these Endspurt weeks with the word “Aufholjagd” always at the ready.