Montenegro’s EU accession hopes at risk over disputes with Croatia

Montenegro’s ambitious goal of becoming the EU’s 28th member by 2028 could be jeopardised unless it resolves its outstanding bilateral disputes with Croatia soon.

Brussels was forced to postpone a pencilled-in intergovernmental conference with the bloc’s “frontrunner” candidate on Tuesday, after Croatia reiterated its opposition to closing several negotiating chapters over the ongoing disputes.

Podgorica has already closed 18 negotiating chapters and aims to complete its homework on the remaining 15 by the end of the month, which would then leave it up to member states to sign off on them.

But the long-running disputes with Croatia risk derailing the whole process. According to diplomats with direct knowledge of the talks, the end-of-year deadline Montenegro has set itself remains achievable, but the window is closing fast.

Zagreb’s demands include compensation for war camp survivors, Montenegro’s cooperation in locating the 14 people still missing from the Croatian War of Independence, prosecutions over war crimes, and the resolution of Croatian families’ outstanding property claims in Montenegro.

“In the effort to find a way forward in relations and resolve open issues, Croatia at the end of 2024 reiterated its call to Montenegro for dialogue to address the open issues that must be concluded so as not to burden the key, final phase of the accession process,” Croatia’s Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs said in a statement in July.

Croatia is also calling for the renaming of a swimming pool named after Zoran Gopčević, a former Yugoslav water polo player whom it links to the Morinj detention camp, as well as a resolution to the disputed maritime boundary and the return of the school ship Jadran.

Bilateral talks have been under way at ministerial level in recent weeks with support from the European Commission, but no solution has yet been found, leading Croatia to keep blocking the closure of chapter 14 on transport policy at a technical meeting on Tuesday.

Zagreb is also currently blocking chapters on foreign and security policy, judiciary and fundamental rights, and justice, freedom and security.

A bilateral meeting is due to take place in Zagreb in early October. If enough progress is made, an intergovernmental conference is expected to close further negotiating chapters on 12 or 13 October.

Hopes are that an agreement between the two foreign ministries could unblock the situation within the next two months though, admittedly, not all the grievances are equally complex.

“It is just a matter of time,” an official told EU News, speaking on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the talks. “Both sides need to continue discussing. But these negotiations cannot be time-framed.”

Time, however, is precisely what Montenegro may be short of if it is to meet its ambitious two-year timeline, all while trying to keep the momentum going ahead of elections in June 2027.

The Commission is wary that the ongoing bilateral disputes risk significantly slowing progress for its best-in-class candidate country, and has been playing a mediating role to help broker an agreement.

At the same time, following an intergovernmental conference in July, Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos sought to reassure that even if Montenegro did not close every chapter this year, it could still join by 2028.

But in that case, Podgorica would have to hope for swift ratification, a prospect complicated by upcoming elections in key member states such as France and Spain, where rising right-wing forces tend to be sceptical of enlargement.

“The decisive point will be how quickly the process of ratification will go on in all the member states,” Kos said.