California redistricts House map to favour Democrats; primary candidates revealed

After a lengthy tallying process, the initial results of California’s Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom‘s plan to edge out up to five House Republicans are in. All five districts that were substantially redrawn after the passage of California’s Proposition 50 initiative to give Democrats an advantage were on the ballot in the state’s primaries on June 2. 

And in a sixth district that was made more GOP-leaning, Democrats were completely shut out.

The redistricting wars kicked off last year, when President Trump pushed Texas legislators to redraw their districts, a process in that state that did not require voter approval. After Newsom’s high-profile effort in California, several other states followed through with their own redistricting measures. California’s outcome is unique, though, since the state uses a primary system where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of party.

But in every state that redrew its map, experts have warned that creating new districts that are more friendly to one party does not guarantee a victory for that party at the ballot box. In some cases, incumbents have to introduce themselves to new voters, and some of the new districts have slim Republican or Democratic margins. 

Here’s how the California districts most affected by redistricting fared in the primary: 

CA-1

District 1 — which was represented by the late GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa — used to cover the conservative northeastern corner of the state. But it’s now far bluer after it was shifted further south toward Marin County, while the northernmost parts were absorbed into the 2nd District, home to heavily Democratic Eureka and the northern Pacific coast.

In Tuesday’s primary, the top vote-getter in District 1 was Republican James Gallagher, who also won the special election for LaMalfa’s old district on June 2. Democrat Mike McGuire, the former state Senate leader, also advanced to the general election.

CA-6

Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley’s current district, which snakes along the California-Nevada border through Death Valley, was redrawn to be mainly concentrated around Democratic Sacramento. Kiley opted to instead run in the nearby 6th District, which skewed slightly less Democratic. 

Kiley, an outspoken critic of redistricting, switched his party registration to independent and was listed on the ballot without party affiliation. Kiley was the top vote-getter in the June 2 primary in his new district, and Dr. Richard Pan squeaked by as the second candidate to advance to the November ballot. Pan’s advance saved Democrats from being shut out of the November ballot, since he was able to retain a narrow lead over Republican Michael Stansfield.

The nonpartisan University of Virginia Center for Politics rates the race as likely Democratic.

CA-3

In Kiley’s old 3rd District, the top vote-getter was Democratic Rep. Ami Bera, who had represented the old 6th District that Kiley is now trying to move away from. Republican Robb Tucker also advanced to the November primary, closely trailed by another Republican, Christine Bish.

The district is also rated likely Democratic by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. 

CA-22

Republican Rep. David Valadao’s Central Valley district was redrawn to include Fresno, making it slightly more Democratic. Valadao is the only Republican who voted to impeach Mr. Trump who has been able to hold onto his seat in Congress. The University of Virginia Center for Politics rates the general election in his district as a toss-up. 

The House Democrats’ campaign arm and establishment Democrats backed moderate Jasmeet Bains, a member of the state Assembly, in their “Red to Blue” program comprising districts the party is targeting. But progressive favorite Randy Villegas — who has the backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — also jumped into the race, telling WTX US News that the “Democratic Party has taken Latino communities for granted.” 

Valadao was the top vote-getter in the June 2 primary, followed by Villegas.

CA-40

California’s new 40th District, which now includes San Bernardino, Orange and Riverside Counties in Southern California, was not drawn to favor Democrats, but instead to remain safely Republican. The new district includes pieces of two districts held by GOP incumbents, Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert. 

Both Kim and Calvert opted to run in the June 2 primary, and they received the most votes in the June 2 primary, resulting in no Democrats making the ballot in November.

CA-48

District 48, which had encompassed Riverside County, was redrawn to include more of the bluer San Diego suburbs, giving Democrats a slight advantage. The nonpartisan University of Virginia Center for Politics rates the race as leaning Democratic. 

After the redistricting, longtime Republican Rep. Darrell Issa decided not to run for reelection this year. In the June 2 primary, Republican County Supervisor Jim Desmond received the most votes, and the other candidate who advanced was Democrat Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego councilwoman. Although Democrats were not locked out of the November ballot, Desmond had a wide lead after the primary.