Experts warn Putin may compel Belarus to engage in Ukraine conflict

Get you up to speed: ‘Serious possibility’ Putin could drag Belarus into Ukraine war | News World

What remains unclear — It is uncertain how the growing pressure on Lukashenko may affect Belarus’s potential involvement in the conflict.

Experts warn Putin may compel Belarus to engage in Ukraine conflict

The war has costly Russia dearly on the battlefield and economically over the past four years (Picture: EPA)

There is a ‘serious possibility’ that Belarus could invade Ukraine, dragging another European country into the ongoing conflict, an expert has warned

Vladimir Putin is said to be ‘actively pressuring’ Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko to enter the war on his side, according to UK Defence Journal editor George Allison.

He spoke days after Russia, which invaded Ukraine in February 2022, held major joint nuclear drills in Belarus.

At the same time, work on infrastructure which would be key to an invasion, like roads and artillery positions, has been ongoing in the former Soviet state along its border with northern Ukraine for months.

All this has sparked fears that Belarus, whose leader has been closely aligned with Putin for decades, is prepared to go beyond vocally supporting Russia to take an active part in the conflict.

Speaking from around 50 miles (70km) from the Belarusian border, Allison told WTX: ‘Ukraine has warned repeatedly this year that Russia is building up military infrastructure in Belarus, including new roads and artillery positions along the northern border.

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Russia and Belarus tested various intercontinental ballistic missiles during their recent four-day joint military exercise (Picture: EPA)

‘Kyiv says Moscow has been actively pressuring Lukashenko to commit Belarusian forces to the conflict, and claims to have details of direct conversations between Putin and the Belarusian leader.’

Allison said Russia had already been using Belarusian territory to ‘enhance’ its drone operations against Ukraine.

Just days ago, the two countries conducted joint exercises in Belarus soil involving nuclear-capable, short-range ballistic Iskander-M missile launchers.

‘Western leaders are watching closely, with (French President Emmanuel) Macron having spoken to Lukashenko by phone this week,’ he added.

‘Ukrainian military assessments have long argued that Minsk’s primary role has been to stretch Kyiv’s defences across multiple fronts, but intelligence now points to something more direct.

‘Zelensky says Ukraine is war-gaming scenarios in which Russia uses Belarus to strike toward (Ukrainian cities) Chernihiv and Kyiv, or potentially a Nato member state.

‘Analysts say a full ground offensive would require Russia to redeploy forces it cannot currently spare from the front line, but the roads, logistics routes and artillery positions going up now mean that could change.

Belarus and Russia sparked alarm among Western leaders with its recent nuclear drills (Picture: Belarusian presidential press service / AFP via Getty Images)

‘This is, I believe, a real and serious possibility. It seems likely to me that the pressure on Lukashenko will only grow.’

Allison spoke amid increasing pressure from within Russia to end the war, which has cost the country dearly on the battlefield and economically.

Russia’s military has suffered around 1.2million casualties since Putin ordered the invasion more than four years ago, according to the think tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Its economy has suffered badly too, as world leaders including then-US President Joe Biden joined leaders in what amounted to an economic war on Russia immediately after the invasion.

This included a raft of sanctions, European countries rapidly reducing their reliance on Russian oil, and the nation being removed from the international payment system Swift.

The conflict has led to an economic war on Russia (Picture: Pierre Crom/Getty Images)

While it rode this economic isolation and partially plugged the gap by selling increased amounts of oil to India and China, the moves still had an effect.

The recent loosening of some sanctions, including by the UK and US, amid the conflict between Iran and America, provided rare positive economic news for Putin.

Despite this, even the country’s own Ministry of Economic Development – usually the Kremlin’s in-house optimist – has conceded the country faces at least two more years of stagnation.

Amid this growing discontent, usually loyal Putin supporters have started to voice their concerns.

There are growing fears that Putin could pressure Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko to join Russia in its fight with Ukraine (Picture: EPA)

A well-connected business leader told the Guardian that there was ‘a growing sense that some kind of catastrophe is looming’.

‘There’s definitely been a shift in mood among the elites this year … there is profound disappointment in Putin,’ they added.

‘No one believes everything will suddenly collapse tomorrow.

‘But there is a growing realisation that utterly senseless, self-destructive decisions keep being made.

‘People who once defended Putin no longer do. Any sense of a future has disappeared.’

This pressure may have prompted Putin to use a speech he gave earlier this month on Victory Day, which commemorates the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany, to say the war ‘was coming to an end’.

How this plays out remains to be seen.

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