Can Elon Musk’s dream of a third party succeed in the US?

The world’s wealthiest person has apparently set his mind to a new startup: his own political party.

As the ongoing public fracturing of the relationship between the US President Donald Trump and his top election financier continues to play out in public, Elon Musk has again vented his opposition to the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” a tax and spending bill, which he believes undoes the efficiency mantra he sought to instill in Washington.

Musk has gone so far as to warn Republican lawmakers who pass the bill that he’ll run candidates against them in next year’s primaries.

And he also threatened the broader US two-party system with the promise that he’ll form a faction of his own.

“If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day,” he wrote on X. “Our country needs an alternative to the Democrat-Republican uniparty so that the people actually have a VOICE.”

A genuinely competitive third party would upend more than a century of Democrats-Republicans dominance at all levels of government. 

Yet few have come close, despite dozens of minor parties operating across the US for decades.

The Libertarian Party, established in 1971, is the third biggest in America. Campaigning for free markets, small government and personal freedoms, it had its best presidential election performance in 2016 with candidate Gary Johnson, who won 3.27% of the nationwide vote.

But that’s a long way from the tens of millions of votes needed to win the White House, a governorship or even a state legislature seat.

The Green Party is another long-running party which has run candidates in state and federal races. Like the Libertarians, it too holds no seats in government.

Stacked deck

The very nature of the American political system is the “winner takes all” principle through the widespread use of a “first past the post” voting system. This delivers victory to candidates with the most votes, almost always a Republican or Democrat.

There are other factors hampering third-party success, according to Bernard Tamas, a political scientist at Valdosta State University, US, who has written extensively on the subject.

Tamas said it’s fundamental for a third party to tap into popular unrest – a large number of people who are dissatisfied with the current political options – and build a groundswell grassroots movement.

“One of the biggest problems with the parties that have emerged is that they’re not really tapping into that anger,” Tamas said. Upstart parties instead “tend to be more wishy-washy and [are] not really focusing in on that strong urge for change.”

If tapping into grassroots is essential, so is money.

Parties spend billions of dollars to get their candidates elected. According to donations watchdog OpenSecrets, nearly $16 billion (about €13.58 billion) was spent across the 2024 presidential and congressional races.

Musk himself was the biggest donor in the 2023-24 election cycle. He gave more than $291 million (€247.1m) to Republicans across all races.

Massive campaign war chests help parties “get out the vote” – buying the advertising and campaigning materials that expose candidates to the public and earn their vote.

It doesn’t guarantee a win – the Democrats spent more than the Republicans in 2024 – but it certainly helps.

“You need money for things like ballot access and a number of other things, but no third party would ever have enough money to compete against the Republicans and Democrats on their own terms,” said Tamas.

Spoiler alert

Could a genuine third party supplant the Democrats or Republicans? It’s unlikely in Tamas’s view. 

Instead of winning seats and building long-term success, Tamas said they instead “sting like a bee.”

“They emerge very quickly, they run a bunch of candidates all over the country, and then they cause one or both major parties major pain,” Tamas said. “They basically are pulling away votes.”

This is called the “spoiler effect”, where protest candidates leech votes away from an often ideologically similar mainstream candidate. In some cases, they could pull away enough votes that a frontrunner loses the lead and falls to second place.

It’s the fear of a third-party groundswell that causes the major parties to alter their policies to appease these voters.

Once the change is achieved, like a bee that’s stung its victim.

“It dies.”

“The most successful third parties in America last about a decade. Once they become too much of a threat, the major parties start stealing their rhetoric, their ideology,” said Tamas.

Do Americans want a new party?

Not all Americans are happy with their options.

Donald Trump’s net approval rating is in negative territory. YouGov’s latest polls found that almost 3 in 5 Americans view the Democratic Party unfavorably. In 2022, a Pew Research analysis found overall support for more parties in the political system.

But it doesn’t mean a new party would succeed. A study by two US political scientists in May 2024 found “disaffected partisans” – Republicans and Democrats unsatisfied with their own parties – were less likely to vote for a third, more centrist alternative.

Tapping into popular anger and frustration with the status quo, Tamas said, is the fastest pathway to success. For a person like Musk, he might do well to look towards the “Fight Oligarchy” movement of left-wing opponents like Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, currently touring America, or the original MAGA movement, if he wants to start a party.

“These are very good examples to follow… the tapping into people’s grievances is really it,” Tamas said.

“They force the [major] parties to respond by threatening their careers and their livelihood.”