Is the Islamic State a threat to Syria’s political future?

Islamic State (IS) , also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), has been widely defeated across Syria but still poses a threat to the nation’s peaceful future. This is at least the estimation of outgoing US President Joe Biden, whose administration has ordered massive airstrikes against the extremist organization.

The arsenal of military aircraft involved in the campaign is a sign of just how seriously the Biden administration takes the threat: Heavy B-52 bombers participated in strikes on central parts of the country, as did F-15 and A-10 Thunderbolt fighter jets.

On the social media platform X, formerly Twitter, the US Central Command stated that these “strikes against the ISIS leaders, operatives, and camps” in central Syria were “part of the ongoing mission to disrupt, degrade, and defeat ISIS.” It reported that it had conducted “dozens of precision airstrikes.”

“There should be no doubt — we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” General Michael Erik Kurilla was quoted as saying. “All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if them partner with or support ISIS in any way.”

“We will help […] ensure stability in eastern Syria, protecting any personnel — our personnel against any threats,” Biden said in a statement on Sunday. “Our mission against ISIS will be maintained, including the security of detention facilities where ISIS fighters are being held as prisoners.”

‘Islamic State never entirely disappeared’

Speaking to DW, the Middle East expert and political consultant Carsten Wieland said that the so-called Islamic state had never truly left Syria, even if it had been widely defeated. “There are still various cells, including sleeper cells, in central and eastern Syria,” he said. “And they certainly do pose a threat.” That is particularly serious when there’s a power vacuum, he said, adding that he thought the US had made the right decision. “Now’s the time to stabilize the forces that have taken over power in Syria as peacefully as possible, and not to burden them with another front in the form of the Islamic State.”

From Iraq to Syria

Founded in Iraq in the context of the 2003 US invasion, the so-called Islamic State started spreading through Syria in 2012 amid the chaos of civil war. Here, the organization called itself the Al-Nusra Front. Its commander, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, is the same man who now leads the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militia that just overthrew Syrian dictator Bashar  Assad.

From an ideological standpoint, al-Jolani had increasingly distanced himself from the Iraqi IS and the rivalry between the two groups mounted in the subsequent years.

Attacking civilians

Weakened by years of civil war, the Syrian armed forces did not have much left to counter the so-called Islamic State. Many soldiers lost their lives in battles and ambushes.

But from 2015, Islamic State — just like the Al-Nusra Front — faced growing pressure from the US military. Their ranks were considerably weakened and they were forced to concede their claims to any territory in 2019. While several military and spiritual IS commanders, known as caliphs, managed to stay in power, the US was repeatedly successful in disabling cells.

Many IS members were imprisoned in northern Syria, where they remain in camps to this day.

Despite all this several IS cells and camps stayed intact, especially in the Badia desert, along Syria’s border with Iraq. Wieland said that they often carried out attacks on the rural population, especially against those hunting for truffles in the area.

“Several dozen people have been killed,” he said. Since other members act as sleeper cells and wait for possible orders, it is almost impossible to definitively destroy the group, he explained.

Al-Jolani: split from Islamic State possible

In its current state, Islamic State seems unable to spread very far, let alone re-establish control in its former territory. But following the toppling of Assad and the political upheavals , the notoriously brutal terror group might attempt to expand its sphere of influence again. This is why it is currently under such fierce attack.

Regarind al-Jolani’s ties with IS, Wieland said it was quite conceivable that the HTS leader had indeed broken with its ideology. “The group reached various deals and agreements with local actors,” he said. “That gives me hope for a constructive progression.”

He also pointed out that he found it “remarkable that there have been no large massacres or revenge campaigns.”

“Under the IS ideology, the past few days would have seen entirely different developments.”

This article was originally published in German.