How far will China go to keep junta afloat?

China has been stepping up its involvement in the Myanmar conflict as rebels continue to advance, with Beijing recently asking the junta to allow Chinese private military corporations to operate within the neighboring country.

Myanmar’s junta is reportedly still reviewing the proposal.

After nearly four years of conflict, Myanmar’s resistance forces now control over half of the country and occupy key trade routes on the Myanmar-China border. The junta has also suffered several military defeats in the past 12 months, raising alarm in Beijing.

“China has billions of dollars of geo-strategic assets in Myanmar, including the China-Myanmar pipeline project, which represents the sole source of piped oil and gas to China’s southwestern provinces,” Jason Tower, Myanmar Country Director at the United States Institute of Peace, told DW.

“Following repeated security failures by the Myanmar military, China is pushing to play a much more direct role in providing security to the pipeline, to state-owned mining projects and to planned infrastructure and trade connectivity projects,” Tower added.

China’s ‘neo-colonial agenda’ for Myanmar

With China also being Myanmar’s biggest trade partner and a key arms supplier to the junta, it appears Beijing is committed to keeping the military regime afloat. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Myanmar in August, with junta boss Min Aung Hlaing traveling to China in November to meet with Premier Li Qiang and — among other appointments —  address a gathering of Chinese business leaders.

But Beijing’s closeness with the junta has also fueled anti-China sentiment in Myanmar, with the Chinese consulate in Mandalay targeted with a small explosive device last month.

Khin Ohmar, a Burmese activist and founder of the Progressive Voice of Myanmar, says China’s backing of the junta is clear.

“China has stepped [up] its aggression against Myanmar people’s sovereignty by threatening Myanmar’s revolutionary forces while providing more military supplies” as well as “aiding and abetting” the junta’s crimes and providing it with “false legitimacy,” she told DW. 

The activist also accused China of having a “neo-colonial agenda” towards its smaller neighbor.

What is the price of China’s support?

Beijing has been displeased with the rapid losses Myanmar’s military has suffered in the past year, with rebels pushing official forces out of even the regions that border China.

“China’s push to play a more direct role in security follows a recent attack on its consulate in Myanmar, as well as multiple years of unsuccessful efforts by the military to provide the security needed to restart key mining projects,” US-based analyst Tower said.

Commenting on the proposed joint security venture, Tower said China’s demands “ultimately would require that the Myanmar army makes significant concessions with respect to the country’s sovereignty.”

He also points out that the junta leader Min Aung Hlaing spent years lobbying for China to invite him for a diplomatic visit, and Beijing’s demands “might be seen as a quid pro quo in exchange for China’s shower of the general with legitimacy.”

Rebels in border regions go from friend to foe

The junta is not the only faction in Myanmar willing to cooperate with Beijing, however. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, is an armed resistance group in the Kokang region bordering China.

Last year, the MNDAA helped China crackdown against Chinese crime rings in Myanmar border towns and helped hand them over to the Chinese authorities.

But relations have seemingly soured after China wanted the group to also stop its offensive in and around its border areas.

The MNDAA is a part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which also includes the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. Together, the three factions took control of Kokang and the major military hub of Leshio this summer.

In October, the MNDAA leader Peng Daxun travelled to China for medical care, but was reportedly detained and put under house arrest.

Pressure from Beijing fails to stop MDNAA

Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington who focuses on Southeast Asian politics, says China is trying to pressure the rebel group into halting their advance.

“[The MNDAA] tried to show that they were a more responsible stakeholder and partner than the junta. The house arrest of Peng, though, really seems to be Beijing’s anger at the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s refusal to stop their offensive and for the capture of Lashio, a major treating town, which for China was a red line,” Abuza said.

“This was an incredible overstep by the Chinese, and I think it will backfire on them. They just don’t understand that the Three Brotherhood Alliance is fighting, because it is in their interest to fight; they have agency and are not going to be bullied by Beijing which has doubled down in their support of the junta,” he added.

Abuza said the MNDAA, like other ethnic groups, are focusing on the fight against Myanmar’s military rule and pushing ahead with their coordinated offensive, dubbed Operation 1027, in Myanmar’s northeast.

“The MNDAA are not boy scouts, but it’s fair to say that their primary concern for the past two years has been on planning and executing Operation 1027, which they have done exceptionally well,” he said.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic