Will Macron become Europe’s leading power amid Germany’s decline?

For years, Germany had been seen as the leading light of Europe — both politically and economically powerful, and with a figurehead in the form of Angela Merkel who was instantly recognizable on the continent and internationally.

Her retirement, a comparatively unstable successor government led by the center-left’s Olaf Scholz, and the difficult passage through the economic turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic, saw Germany’s European star dull.

Across the border, Emmanuel Macron — no stranger to his own domestic political battles — has emerged as Europe’s most important national leader amid the global shocks wrought by the second Trump administration and its hostile posture towards traditional European allies.

Changing face of European leadership

Germany is without a government, but is expected to return to a “Grand Coalition” led by Friedrich Merz and his center-right Union with a junior partner in the center-left Social Democrats.

But while these establishment parties thrash out the terms of their political alliance, Europe’s most powerful economy is stuck with a caretaker government during Donald Trump’s barrage of tariffs and the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

While Macron has always been among the world’s most recognizable national leaders, he has been particularly vocal amid current turmoil, and comfortably wears the hats of both French president and an ambassador for Europe.

“He has a European message and this message is coordinated, but in the end, he’s the President of France,” said Gesine Weber, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund specializing in European security.

“The two are, of course, interlinked because most European interests are also French interests and vice versa.”

As European leaders scope out increased defense spending and even concepts of unified defense, Macron has even gone as far as to put the expansion of France’s domestic nuclear shield back on the table, to the chagrin of Russia.

In other areas of foreign policy, Macron has been trying to advance European interests along French lines: “Europe has become very French over the last five years,” Weber points out.

After a slow start, Macron has put himself in the middle of advancing the continent’s interests on Ukraine and, now, in addressing tariffs.

His incumbency and pre-existing relationship with Donald Trump from the US President’s first term also uniquely position him to engage the United States.

“He was the first head-of-state or government among Europeans that was able to establish — or reestablish — a relationship with Trump,” says Weber.

Macron’s moment closing fast

Macron is a “lame duck” president, with limits on the French presidency limiting the role to two consecutive terms. With the next election due in 2027, that leaves just two years for Macron to realize his vision for France and Europe.

Jacob Ross, a research fellow in Franco-German Relations at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) said France is well-positioned to lead Europe through this fractious period.

“Intellectually at least, the French are in a very good position right now to take leadership,” Ross said.

Ross points to France’s traditional stance of thinking about its role — and Europe’s larger place in the world — autonomously, and not through a US-centric lens.

But France’s autonomous viewpoint isn’t enough for it to claim a standalone place as Europe’s quasi-leader.

“They are in such a difficult position with regards to their sovereign debt situation, with very little room for maneuver in terms of expanding national budgets, including on defense,” Ross said.

“With regard to ideas, Macron takes leadership and has been doing so since 2017 and now the environment really favors his position. But France lacks the material base to really put that forward on its own.”

Another hurdle for Macron’s pro-Europe vision is the rise of his former Euroskeptic presidential rival Marine Le Pen, who is seeking to take a recent conviction barring her from running in 2027 and turn it into political momentum.

Questions over singular European ‘leader’ 

Both Ross and Weber say a singular Merkel-like European figure is less likely amid the fractious period of deteriorating relations with the US to the west, ongoing conflict with Russia to the east, and rising populists and far-right parties at home.

Amid Donald Trump’s protectionist “America First” doctrine and war on the continent, strengthening traditional alliances like the “E3” France-Germany-Britain triumvirate may be the best bet for Europeans, and Franco-German leadership with another powerful ally across the English Channel.

“A certainty is the Franco-German dynamic will remain strong in the foreseeable future, at least in the next two years,” said Ross.

“The French know that Macron and his pro European stance will be at risk beyond 2027, with the presidential election coming up.

“[They’ll] try to pressure the Germans into getting important steps done before 2027.”