Cliff Notes – When can Liverpool win the Premier League title
- Liverpool currently holds a 12-point lead at the top of the Premier League, needing 16 points from their remaining nine matches to secure the title.
- The earliest Liverpool could clinch the championship is on April 13, provided they win two and draw one of their next three matches, while Arsenal loses all three of theirs.
- If both Liverpool and Arsenal win all their remaining games, the title could be decided on May 4, when Liverpool faces Chelsea and Arsenal hosts AFC Bournemouth.
When can Liverpool win the Premier League title?
Liverpool have built up a 12-point lead at the top of the Premier League table with nine games to go and seem destined to be crowned English champions for a 20th time.
But how soon could the title be sealed? When is the most likely date? And what does the fixture list look like?
This file will be updated throughout the season until the title is confirmed — for Liverpool, Arsenal or perhaps even Nottingham Forest.
Liverpool are closing in on their 20th top-flight title. Carl Recine/Getty ImagesHow does the table look?Premier League tableGPPTSGD1 – Liverpool2970+422 – Arsenal2958+293 – Nottm Forest2954+14
All teams have played 29 matches, which means there are nine games to go, and 27 points to play for.
Second-place Arsenal are Liverpool’s nearest challengers, and they next play on Tuesday, April 1, when they host Fulham.
That means the gap could be reduced to nine points by the time Liverpool take to the pitch 24 hours later, at home to Everton.
Nottingham Forest are in third place but are four points further back.
How many points do Liverpool need?
Liverpool require 16 points (86 in total) from their remaining nine games for an unassailable points total, as Arsenal can finish on a maximum of 85 if they win all their matches. Of course, it’s unlikely the Gunners will do that, so fewer points are likely to be needed.
When is the earliest Liverpool could win the league?
It could be wrapped up in three games’ time in Gameweek 32 — on Sunday, April 13.
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For this to happen, Liverpool would need to win two and draw one of their matches against Everton (H), Fulham (a) and West Ham (H).
However, it would require Arsenal to lose all three of their games, vs. Fulham (H), Everton (a) and Brentford (H). Nottingham Forest would also need to drop five points from matches against Manchester United (H), Aston Villa (a) and Everton (H).
It could also happen on April 13 if Arsenal draw one and lose two of those matches, with Liverpool winning all three. For this, Forest would need to drop only three points.
What if Arsenal and Liverpool win all their games?
The title would be decided on the weekend of May 3, when Arsenal host AFC Bournemouth and Liverpool travel to Chelsea.
This would require both clubs to win all five matches going into that weekend.
Arsenal play on the Saturday, so Liverpool could then win the title by avoiding defeat at Chelsea on Sunday, May 4.
Remaining gamesLiverpoolArsenalForestGameweek 30Everton (H)Fulham (H)Man United (H)Gameweek 31Fulham (a)Everton (a)Aston Villa (a)Gameweek 32West Ham (H)Brentford (H)Everton (H)Gameweek 33Leicester (a)Ipswich (a)Tottenham (a)Gameweek 34Tottenham (H)Palace (H)Brentford (H)Gameweek 35Chelsea (a)Bournemouth (H)Palace (a)Gameweek 36Arsenal (H)Liverpool (a)Leicester (H)Gameweek 37Brighton (a)Newcastle (H)West Ham (a)Gameweek 38Palace (H)Southampton (a)Chelsea (H)Would Arsenal have to give Liverpool a guard of honor?
While it’s not obligatory, the first team to play the champions after they are crowned does usually provide a guard of honor as they walk out.
If Liverpool win the title on Sunday, May 4, then Arsenal at home is the next fixture.
Could Liverpool seal the title against Arsenal?
Yes!
If Liverpool go into the game with a lead of four, five or six points, they would need to beat Arsenal to secure the title against them.
If Liverpool start the match with a lead of seven, eight or nine points, a draw or a win would seal the title.
When are Liverpool most likely to win the title?
The best way to assess this is using points per game (PPG), essentially from across the season.
Liverpool’s PPG is 2.41, while Arsenal’s is 2.00.
If that continues, Liverpool would be crowned champions when they play at home to Tottenham on April 27 in Gameweek 34.
What if Liverpool and Arsenal finish with identical records?
The normal order of tiebreakers is:
1) Points
2) Goal differential
3) Goals scored
In general, teams who still have identical records at this stage are deemed to occupy the same position in the table. Ergo, if the teams in 13th and 14th have the same points, goal differential and goals scored, then will both be ranked 13th.
But if the position determines the championship, European qualification or relegation then there’s further tiebreakers.
4) Head-to-head record
The first game between Arsenal and Liverpool at the Emirates was a 2-2 draw. If the match at Anfield on the weekend of May 10 was also a draw, we would have to move onto a further tiebreaker.
5) Head-to-head away goals
As Liverpool scored twice at Arsenal, they hold a strong position. The only way we could move onto the final tiebreaker is if it was also 2-2 at Anfield.
6) A playoff!
The two teams would meet at a neutral venue to decide the championship. This almost happened in the 1995-95 season when the Premier League, the Football Association and Wembley had gone as far as printing tickets for a potential playoff between Manchester United and Newcastle United. Of course, it wasn’t necessary as Man United won the title by four points.
Liverpool and Arsenal finishing with identical records might seem fanciful right now, as Liverpool have scored 16 more goals than the Gunners and they have a goal differential advantage of 13. However, if Arsenal were to bridge the 12-point gap over the remaining nine matches, the goals scored and goal differential gap would naturally close.
OK, so when is the earliest Arsenal could win the title?
If Liverpool lost every match, and Arsenal won all their games, the Gunners could be crowned champions at Anfield on the weekend of May 10.
How many players get a medal?
The champions get 40 commemorative medals for the manager, players and officials. Any player who has played five matches automatically qualifies for a medal; additional medals require consent of the Premier League Board, which will only be granted if the total number of players who have played five or more games exceeds 39.
