What chance does the opposition have?

The Tanzanian party for Democracy and Progress, commonly known as Chadema, has a long and storied history. It was founded in 1992, shortly after Tanzania adopted a multiparty system of democracy.

Despite its efforts, Chadema has yet to secure an electoral victory over the ruling CCM (Chama Cha Mapinduzi) party, which has ruled the nation since it became a united republic in 1964. This year, in October, Chadema will get another opportunity when Tanzanian voters go to the polls to elect their president and members of parliament.

Party chairman Freeman Mbowe has been rallying his members to forge a united front. Addressing those gathered at Chadema headquarters in Dar es Salaam, the country’s larest city, last Thursday. “When we leave Dar es Salaam, our unity must be stronger than ever before,” Mbowe emphasized.

From January 21 to 22, Chadema members convene in Dar es Salaam to vote on the party leadership, including who is likely to become the party’s flagbearer in the election. The race pits longtime chairman Mbowe against his deputy, Tundu Lissu. The stakes in the two-day party congress extend beyond the chairmanship to the party’s future direction.

Differing party ideologies from the two rivals

Whereas Mbowe champions continuity, arguing that the party’s past successes should not be overlooked, Lissu has called for transformative changes. In an interview with DW, Lissu criticized the party’s resource distribution, noting that Chadema’s wealth often remains concentrated at its headquarters in Dar es Salaam, rather than reaching its grassroots in regional areas.

Lissu also stressed the need for structured leadership transitions. “When we began in 1993, party statutes imposed term limits. We abolished them in 2006 because the party was small and lacked sufficient leadership,” Lissu said.

With the party having grown significantly, Lissu insists it is time to restore such mechanisms. “We must create pathways for new blood to enter the party leadership. Only then can we generate fresh ideas and strategies.”

United against the ruling CCM

Despite their differences, both top candidates are united in opposing President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s government. “We must never lose hope,” Mbowe declared, urging alliances with other parties, civil society, and academia to push for electoral and constitutional reforms. This is how we can build national pressure for free and fair elections.”

Last November, Chadema sharply criticized the handling of local elections, alleging unfair disqualification of candidates and reporting the deaths of three party members in incidents related to the polls. The ruling CCM — which secured over 98% of the vote — was accused of electoral manipulation.

Suluhu’s tenure began with optimism. Rising to power in 2021 following the sudden death of her predecessor, John Pombe Magufuli, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Hassan pledged to reverse many of his controversial policies. Magufuli’s tenure was marked by heavy restrictions on civil liberties and a denialist approach to the pandemic, which isolated Tanzania on the global stage. Suluhu appeared poised to chart a more moderate course.

“The business community is enjoying working with her as a president,” Maggid Mjengwa, a Tanzanian political analyst based in Dar es Salaam, told DW. “She made it possible to create the environment whereby more investors are coming to Tanzania and the economy is prospering,” he added.

Abductions on the rise

However, independent political analyst Lovelet Lwakatare describes Tanzania’s current [political] situation as deeply troubling. “There has been little tangible progress under President Suluhu,” she told DW. “When marginalized voices are silenced, it’s a cause for concern,” Lwakatare said, adding that the state’s primary role is to protect its citizens.

“When Tanzanians feel unsafe in their own country, it’s alarming.”

Earlier this month, in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi,  unknown men abducted Tanzanian political activist Maria Sarungi Tsehai. However, due to the quick intervention of Amnesty International and mounting pressure on social media platforms calling for her release, she was freed hours later. “I am one of the few who have survived such an ordeal,” Sarungi told DW in an interview. “In Tanzania, many who disappear are never found.”

Some observers suspect the Tanzanian government may have been behind Sarungi’s abduction, pointing to the government’s silence following the incident. While Lwakatare refrained from directly accusing President Suluhu’s regime, she emphasized that responsibility ultimately lies with the administration. “If Tanzanians are not protected, how can we expect to remain part of the international community?” she asked. Systematic abductions and arrests of government critics are serious allegations confronting President Suluhu and the ruling CCM.

Despite the risks, Sarungi remains resolute in her work. “I fight for human rights, freedom of expression, press freedom, and good governance. Any government should welcome collaboration with someone like me,” she added.

Does Chadema need a ‘new’ leader?

Some political observers argue that changing Chadema’s leadership could alter the dynamics. “Chairman Mbowe has done remarkable work building Chadema. But it’s time for a vibrant opposition with fresh ideas and methods to hold the government accountable,” Lwakatare said.

Lissu is seen as a candidate uniquely suited to challenge the status quo. Known for his unwavering courage, he has become a symbol of resilience. In 2017, he narrowly survived an assassination attempt in Dodoma, sustaining multiple gunshot wounds.

Weeks before the attack, Lissu reported being trailed by intelligence agents. After years of medical treatment in Belgium, he returned to Tanzania in 2023. Yet, questions remain about his commitment should he lose the leadership race. Lissu has stated he intends to remain loyal to Chadema regardless of the outcome.

George Njogopa and Florence Majani in Dar es Salaam and Thelma Mwadzaya in Nairobi contributed to this article

This article was translated from German

Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu