US-Ukraine relations at Munich Security Conference leaves Ukraine in the lurch

Trump Ukraine peace talks

Just days before, US President Donald Trump announced that he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin then proceeded to reject NATO membership for Ukraine and said Kyiv would have to cede territory to Russia if it wanted peace.

Sybiha believes, his country is no longer alone. “We have hope,” as Trump Ukraine peace talks have begun without Ukraine, exclaimed the foreign minister.

Meanwhile President Zelensky has traveled to the United Arab emirates to garner support for negotiations.

What happened at the Munich Security Conference 2025

Sybiha’s words were spoken at the Munich Security Conference 2025 kicked off their official Ukraine discussion and the ensuing exchange picked up steam. The discussion, hosted by DW’s Sarah Kelly, offered an unusual situation, seating five participants in a circle entirely surrounded by interested attendees, many of them prominent political figures.

Those taking part in the discussion were the Ukrainian foreign minister, his Polish and British counterparts Radoslav Sikorski and David Lammy, Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene and US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg — who was afforded the most attention during the event.

US Envoy Kellogg on Trump: ‘America first? Yes! America alone? No!’

After Trump’s call with Putin and Vance’s performance in Munich (not to mention statements made by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Warsaw and Brussels), it was no surprise that all eyes were on Kellogg Saturday evening.

Kellogg on Ukraine negotiations surprised guests with an unexpected statement when taking the floor, telling those gathered that defining terms is key to productive dialogue as well as for allies seeking to forge a “comprehensive plan” for Ukraine.

Kellogg said that although the Trump administration often says “America first,” it has never said “America alone.” But key to any discussions pivot on an European defense spending increase.

Kellogg on Ukraine negotiations

That statement opened the door for Ukrainian and European hopes that the US is not intent on entirely abandoning support for Kyiv after nearly three years of war. Still, Kellogg was clear about Washington‘s belief that there is no way Ukraine can kill its way to victory in the conflict. He then referred to the discussion’s title — “Peace Through Strength” — calling it a “deeply American phrase.”

Kellogg also appeared convinced that sanctions could be a powerful tool against Russia — which continues to produce most of its wealth through oil and gas sales, causing Kellogg to describe it as a petrostate. Kellogg voiced confidence that sanctions would eventually leave Putin with no choice but to offer territorial concessions once negotiations begin.

European defense spending increase

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski continued on the topic of sanctions, describing how Russia’s economy is beginning to buckle under the strain of years of war, adding, we have “to convince President Putin to become more reasonable… we have to convince him that the price he would have to pay would be unacceptable.” And for that reason, according to the Pole, the EU should maintain its course on Ukraine.

It takes a lot of money to defend yourself

UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy said he agreed with Trump on one point, that Europe needs to do more to protect itself. Lithuania’s Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene was of a similar opinion. Lots of money, she said, would be required to build as many arms manufacturing facilities on the continent as possible.

She also noted that Lithuania had far exceeded defense expenditures of at least 2% of GDP and that another major uptick is in the making.

That dynamic was something that Polish FM Sikorsky picked up on, calling it unfair. He said it was always the case that countries situated most closely to war zones were forced to pay more for their own defenses. Sikorsky made the case for more equitable burden sharing — though was clear that this would not be possible as long as Hungary (which maintains friendly ties to Moscow and has consistently fought to block EU Ukraine aid) continued to prevent such changes.

Sikorsky then won light laughs from the audience — which included US senators, former Russian opposition politician and journalist Vladimir Kara-Mursa, exiled Belarus opposition leader and former presidential candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and former NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg — by suggesting to Kellogg that Trump could lean on Hungary to make that happen.

Europe won’t be at ‘the table’ says Kellogg of Ukraine-Russia negotiations

When the discussion was over and the floor opened for questions, it was Kellogg alone to whom each was addressed. It was the only chance to ask questions of any US representative over the course of the MSC. US Vice President Vance, for instance, met with a select number of politicians while in the city and took no questions from journalists.

Now, it was up to Kellogg to answer both Kelly’s and the audience’s questions. Once again, terminology was an issue. For instance, when asked whether Europeans would have “a seat at the table” during ceasefire negotiations, Kellogg responded by saying: “define ‘at the table’…” Kellogg went on to say that the straight answer to the question would have to be “no,” simply because there would be no table at all. He added, however, that when it came time for negotiations, Ukraine would “naturally” have a place at the table.

As the event drew to a close, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybhia, who voiced confidence early on, also called for clarity when defining terms like “deal” and “peace.” “We are talking about comprehensive long-lasting peace — not just the absence of war,” he said of plans to wind down the conflict, adding that Ukraine’s plan to meet those ends remain the same: “peace through strength.”

As US-Ukraine relations at Munich Security Conference are at their weakest so now, the Ukrainian diplomat said, is the time for Europe to show its strength.