Uncertainty ahead for Mozambique as Chapo set to be sworn in

The streets of Maputo were deserted on Monday when Mozambique swore in its new parliament. Opposition leader Venancio Mondlane had called for a three-day strike to protest the result of highly disputed elections. Indeed, two smaller opposition parties boycotted the opening ceremony, saying they did not accept the outcome of the October election. President-elect Daniel Chapo called for calm and unity after months of unrest that have rocked the southern African nation.

Mondlane entered Mozambique from self-imposed exile last week after his lawyer was assassinated on October 19. His return sparked confrontations between supporters and police in the capital. He called for three days of protests this week.

For Mozambican analyst Carmeliza Rosario, there are few signs that a peaceful end to the standoff is in sight.

“There is a feeling of unfairness. There is no impartial media and not everyone is covering everything,” she told DW. She added that there are competing narratives: one by the ruling Frelimo party, to whom the 48-year-old Chapo belongs, and that of Mondlane’s opposition party, Podemos.

Mozambique’s highest court confirmed the parliamentary seat allocation from the election just before Christmas, with Frelimo obtaining 171 seats and Podemos, a small party that has become the main opposition, winning 43.

Civil war a possibility?

Mondlane, 50, insists he was robbed of victory in elections last October when Frelimo had a crushing win of 65%, extending half a century of rule. With his party officially winning only 24% of the vote, Mondlane blamed electoral fraud and voter manipulation.

Local NGOs report that around 300 people have died in unrest since the election. Mozambican security forces are accused of using excessive force, including live bullets, against demonstrators.

“We will have again a state that is imposing itself, with people rejecting this imposition, and deciding who they want to rule them,” Rosario tells DW, adding that Mozambique could be heading for a civil war. 

Frelimo has governed Mozambique since the country’s independence from Portugal. The party was in civil war from 1977 to 1992 against Renamo, now a small opposition party. In the many decades of its rule, Frelimo has been accused of corruption, elitism, and of not improving the lives of ordinary Mozambicans, which has led younger voters to seek a change in government.

Tendai Mbanje, an analyst at the Johannesburg-based African Centre for Governance, told the AFP that Mondlane “is the current hope and future of the youths.”

“If Frelimo would like to unite the country, it is time that they take his return as an opportunity for dialogue,” he said.

Mondlane has so far not been arrested, and Frelimo reportedly held talks with leaders of Podemos, the party that backed Mondlane, to end the stand-off.

“The major problem for Chapo is that he doesn’t have the streets,” says Rosario, adding that “Podemos is very weak, but with a strong charismatic attachment in Venancio Mondlane. Daniel Chapo is weak, but with a very strong Frelimo party behind him.”

Citizens hope for unity

With shops remaining shuttered and a heavy police presence in some towns, Mozambique’s economy has been hard hit. In the aftermath of the election, neighboring South Africa even closed its border crossing to Mozambique. Shipping, cross-border trade, and the mining industry have been badly affected.

For many Mozambicans, like civil worker Neto Fernando, a return to normality would be ideal: “We want peace, there is nothing else we want. It doesn’t matter who’s going to govern, we people want peace and a chance to work and unity between Mozambicans.”

Others, like driver Tomas Cumbe, seem to be resigned to another government that is unlikely to change Mozambicans: “The most important is dialogue, no one will do 100% for Mozambicans. But it is necessary that they can understand each other like a Mozambican. There must be concessions from both parties,” he says.  

Bad election year for southern Africa liberation parties 

The liberation parties of Namibia, Botswana and South Africa all had forgettable elections in 2024. Swapo retained power in Namibia by a whisker, while the African Nation Congress was forced into coalition politics for the first time, and the Botswana Democratic Party outright lost power after governing Botswana since independence from Britain. 

However, if official results are to be taken at face value, that trend has not continued in Mozambique. Rosario reasons that Namibia and South Africa have relatively large economies, while in Mozambique “the only way to access resources is through the state and the party.”

This has resulted in Frelimo doing everything it can to retain power rather than searching for compromises.

“We could have had an economy. We have the natural resources for that, but because governance has been so bad we don’t,” Rosario explains.

Edited by: Sarah Hucal.