Cliff Notes – The film to beat at the Oscars 2026 has already been revealed
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Early Favourite: “One Battle After Another,” starring Leonardo DiCaprio and directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, is the frontrunner for the 2026 Oscars, with odds of 4/7 from Paddy Power.
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Strong Competition: Other notable contenders include “Hamnet” at 3/1, featuring Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal, and “Sinners,” a horror film with odds of 12/1, directed by Ryan Coogler.
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Predictions Across Categories: “One Battle After Another” is also expected to excel in major categories, including Best Actor for DiCaprio and Best Director for Anderson, with a Paddy Power spokesperson suggesting it may dominate the awards.
The film to beat at the Oscars 2026 has already been revealed
Bookies already agree that one film is set to sweep the Oscars (Picture: AP)
The Oscars aren’t set to take place until March 2026, but already it seems as though there is a stand-out winner.
It was announced earlier this week that smash hit horror Sinners had submitted two original songs for consideration in the Oscar awards.
News of the move sparked renewed interest in the run-up to the Academy Awards, with speculation beginning about which movie might be able to seize the Best Picture award.
Although not all of the films which will be considered in the ceremony have even been released in cinemas, bookies already have a clear winner.
The runaway early favourite for the 2026 Oscars best picture is One Battle After Another at odds of 4/7 according to Paddy Power.
The film stars Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Benicio Del Toro, Teyana Taylor, and Chase Infiniti.
One Battle After Another is the film to beat at the Oscars (Picture: AP)
Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, the film follows washed-up revolutionary Bob (DiCaprio) living off the grid with his daughter, Willa (Infiniti). Their life is thrown into disarray when a figure from their past, corrupt military official Steven J. Lockjaw (Penn), resurfaces after new information points to their whereabouts.
When Willa goes missing, Bob is forced to scramble to find her while reckoning with his past.
It opened to a worldwide total of $48.5million (£36m) at the box office, but has fierce competition from an array of strong contenders.
Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal star in Hamnet (Picture: AP)
Hamnet is next up at 3/1 odds to win. The film stars Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal as William Shakespeare and his wife, Agnes, as they deal with the loss of their 11-year-old son Hamnet.
The project also comes from Oscar-winning director Chloé Zhao, who was behind the critically acclaimed Nomadland in 2020.
Sinners comes in at the third most popular with 12/1 odds. Writer-director Ryan Coogler’s blood-soaked vampire rock opera was hailed by critics upon its release, with Michael B Jordan starring as twins in the film.
The film is set in 1932 Mississippi, and focuses on twins Smoke and Stack, who return from Chicago to open a juke joint in their hometown, recruiting young cousin Sammie (played by Miles Catton) to provide musical Entertainment at their new bar. Things take a scary turn as supernatural events begin to unfold.
Michael B. Jordan plays identical twins in Sinners (Picture: Warner Bros. Pictures via AP)
Sentimental Value is in fourth with an 8/1 shot. It has been dubbed the ‘must-watch’ film of 2025 and received a 19-minute standing ovation at the Cannes Film Festival.
The film is set in Oslo and comes from Danish-born Norwegian filmmaker Joachim Trier, who was praised for his 2021 film The Worst Person in the World.
The film stars Renate Reinsve (who also appeared in The Worst Person in the World), Stellan Skarsgård, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Elle Fanning and Cory Michael Smith. The story follows a dysfunctional family in Oslo and all the hurt they’ve witnessed and carried over the generations in their faded but quirky home.
Oscar predictions for 2026
Paddy Power has predicted that One Battle After Another is set to win across the board when it comes to many of the major categories for the Academy Awards in March 2026.
Best Picture
One Battle After Another – 4/7
Hamnet – 3/1
Sinners – 12/1.
Sentimental Value – 8/1
Best Actor
Timothe Chalamet for Marty Supreme – 10/11
Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another – 15/8
Jeremy Allen White for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere – 4/1
Dwayne Johnson for The Smashing Machine – 8/1
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley for Hamnet – 2/5
Chase Infinit for One Battle After Another – 5/2
Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You -4/1 (tied third)
Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value – 4/1 (tied third)
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another – 4/9
Chloe Zhao for Hamnet – 9/4
Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value at 4/1
Ryan Googler for Sinners – 4/1
One Battle After Another is also in the top two for many other categories, including best actor, best actress, and best director.
A Paddy Power spokesperson said: ‘It looks like One Battle After Another won’t face too much of a fight for top honours at next year’s Oscars.
‘With it being such a runaway favourite it’s set to not so much run as strut down the red carpet in Hollywood.
‘If it doesn’t sweep the Oscars, we’ll eat our tuxedos.’
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