Following the fall of dictator Bashar Assad, there is uncertainty over the future of Russia’s military bases in Syria. The naval base in Tartus and the airbase in Hmeimim are Russia’s only military outposts outside the former Soviet Union and have played a key role in the Kremlin’s activities in Africa and the Middle East.

Losing the military bases in Syria would be devastating for Russia’s Africa Corps (former Wagner Group) that are present in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Central African Republic and in Libya, said Beverly Ochieng, a security analyst at the risk consultancy Control Risks in Senegal.

“We have seen the al-Qaeda group in Mali celebrating the events in Syria and looking at it as a potential inroad for further undermining co-operation between Russia and Mali,” Ochieng told the BBC.

Wagner’s presence in Africa and what it gets in return

Russia’s influence in Africa may weaken after Assad’s fall – DW – 01/09/2025