Reform UK would win most seats in a general election, new poll suggests
An in‑depth YouGov poll projects Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could gain around 271 seats, emerging as the largest party in a hung parliament, while Labour drops to 176–178 seats and the Conservatives collapse to about 46 seats if a general election were held today.
Key findings:
- Reform UK leads on 34 % of the national vote (Ipsos), ahead of Labour (25%) and the Tories (15%).
- Labour faces fallout from its welfare cuts rebellion and internal tensions under Morgan McSweeney, whose right‑leaning pivot has unsettled some MPs.
- Reform is making inroads in former Labour heartlands, especially northern manufacturing regions, capitalising on working‑class disillusionment.
Read a full WTX News report on the new polling
🔁 Reactions:
- Political analyst: > “This is not a protest wave; Reform is polling as a serious contender for power.”
- Labour backbencher: “McSweeney’s strategy may win voters but is alienating our core.”
- Former Conservative: “27–34 % for Reform is real, but FPTP or full‑election behaviour may differ.
📰 Bias Snapshot:
- YouGov/The Sun/Sky emphasise Reform’s electoral surge and strategic implications for Starmer and Badenoch.
- The Times/FT provide deeper analysis of Labour’s internal fracturing and Reform’s appeal in deindustrialised communities.
- The Guardian highlights Reform’s traditional “protest vote” origins and flags the limits of translating local or national vote share into actual seats under first‑past‑the‑post.
📊 Sentiment: Neutral–negative. The poll signals profound instability in UK politics, threatening both Labour and Conservative dominance, with urgent questions over Reform’s staying power under electoral system pressures and Labour’s internal turbulence.