Reform UK poses ‘very serious threat’ to Labour, Welsh first minister warns

The threat from Reform in Wales is “very serious”, the country’s Labour leader said as exclusive polling revealed Nigel Farage’s party is the first choice for Welsh voters.

Speaking to Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan said: “We think the threat from Reform is a very serious threat.

“I think it is important people recognise that things that we see every day in our lives in Wales may be snatched away from us, and the kind of stability that we’ve had for a long time.’

Ms Morgan admitted “we’ve got a lot of work to do to get voters back” ahead of the May 2026 Senedd (Welsh parliament) elections – something backed up by exclusive polling that reveals Reform is beating Welsh Labour, who have been in power in the Senedd since 1999.

A More in Common poll for Sky News found 28% of people in Wales would vote for Reform if an election for the Senedd was called tomorrow.

That was followed closely by nationalist party Plaid Cymru on 26%, Labour with 23%, the Conservatives on 10%, Lib Dems with 7%, the Green Party with 4% and 2% for other parties or independent candidates.

Of those who voted for Labour at last year’s general election, less than half (48%) would vote for them again, while 15% would go to Plaid Cymru and 11% to Reform – although 13% were undecided.

A total of 883 people representative of the Welsh population were asked from 18 June to 3 July.

Last month, Mr Farage told an event in the steel town of Port Talbot, he would reopen Welsh coal mines to provide fuel for blast furnaces.

Ms Morgan said she will not be “chasing Reform down a path… because those aren’t my values”.

“What we’ll be doing is offering a very clear alternative, which is about bringing communities together,” she said.

“I think it’s really important that we’re authentic and we’re clear with people about what we stand for.

“I think we’ve got to lead with our values so we’re about bringing communities together not dividing them and I do think that’s what reform is interested in is dividing people and people do need to make choices on things like that.”

She admitted “there is a possibility” Reform could be the largest party in the Senedd “and that is really concerning”.

However, she said the way voting in Wales works means it would be “difficult for them to rule by themselves”.

Would she go into coalition with Reform?

“I wouldn’t touch Reform with a barge pole,” she said.