Cliff Notes – Race to IPL 2025 playoffs: three teams battle for one spot

Mumbai Indians (MI) can secure playoff qualification by defeating Delhi Capitals (DC) in their next match, as it would leave DC unable to reach 16 points.
Delhi Capitals must win against MI to remain in contention, and a subsequent victory over Punjab Kings (PBKS) would guarantee their playoff spot.
Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) face an uphill battle, needing to win all remaining matches while relying on MI and DC to finish below 16 points, given their poor net run rate.

S Rajesh

CloseS Rajesh is ESPNcricinfo’s stats editor in Bangalore. He did an MBA in marketing, and then worked for a year in advertising, before deciding to chuck it in favour of a job which would combine the pleasures of watching cricket and writing about it. The intense office cricket matches were an added bonus.May 18, 2025, 08:11 PM

Gujarat Titans’ win against Delhi Capitals (DC) means three teams are now through to the playoffs – GT, Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) and Punjab Kings (PBKS). That’s because the two other teams which can also make it to 17 – DC and Mumbai Indians (MI) – are playing each other, ensuring that only one of those teams will eventually get to that mark. Here is a look at the teams which are in contention for the fourth spot, and what they need to do clinch that place.

Mumbai Indians
Played: 12, Points: 14, NRR: 1.156
Remaining matches: DC (h), PBKS (Jaipur)

DC’s defeat against GT means there will be plenty riding on their next game, against MI on Wednesday. A win for MI will almost certainly ensure qualification, as DC can then only finish on a maximum on 15 points. Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) can still get to 16 if they win their three remaining games, but their net run rate (-0.469) is so far behind MI’s that it is near-impossible for them to catch up: even if they win their matches by a combined margin of 300 runs and MI beat DC by just one run, MI will still need to lose their last match, against PBKS, by about 70 runs for their NRR to slip below that of LSG’s (assuming first-innings scores of 200). Plainly put, MI can consider themselves through to the playoffs if they beat DC.

If they lose, though, qualification will be out of their hands as DC can then beat PBKS and reach 17 points and clinch the fourth spot. If DC lose to PBKS then MI can still qualify with 16 points if they beat PBKS.

If MI lose both matches, they will be out.

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Delhi Capitals
Played: 12, Points: 13, NRR: 0.260
Remaining matches: MI (a), PBKS (Jai)

DC’s defeat against GT – their fourth in the last six matches – leaves them with plenty to do make the playoffs. To start with, they need to beat MI to stay in the race. If they follow that up with a win against PBKS, they will qualify for sure. If they beat MI but lose to PBKS, they’ll have to hope that MI lose to PBKS as well and stay on 14, and that LSG don’t win all three of their remaining matches. In that case, 15 points will still be enough to qualify for DC.

Lucknow Super Giants
Played: 11, Points: 10, NRR: -0.469
Remaining matches: SRH (h), GT (a), RCB (h)

As explained above, LSG’s run-rate is so poor – and MI’s so good – that they can’t win that battle. Hence, LSG will have to not only win their three remaining games but also hope that both MI and DC stay below 16. That’s asking for a lot, especially from a team which is struggling for form, having lost three in a row and four of their last five matches.

If one of their matches is washed out and they finish on 15, their only chance will be if MI lose both and DC finish on 15. Even then, any NRR battle is highly unlikely to go in their favour.