Mahama’s win emboldens Africa’s opposition parties

Opposition leader John Draman Mahama’s win in last weekend’s presidential election in Ghanais a significant milestone in African politics. Ghana’s Electoral Commission confirmed late on Monday that with vote counting complete, 66-year-old Mahama’s party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC), had scored around 56% of the ballots cast in the West African country.

Mahama’s victory against Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, the candidate running for the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), rejuvenated opposition parties in Africa seeking change, showing that change is not only possible but attainable.

After eight years with the NPP in power, Mahama’s victory further inspires opposition groups across Africa after earlier in the year, incumbent leaders in other African nations had also been deposed already:

Mauritius, Botswana, and breakaway Somaliland all registered major power transfers in 2024. Elsewhere in Africa, opposition groups in Namibia and South Africaalso made significant gains against erstwhile unbeatable establishment parties. The underlying reasons for the gains are the promises to fix their respective economies and promote good governance.

Accountability at the ballot box

According to Ben Graham Jones, a consultant specializing in emerging challenges to election integrity, accountability at the election box was a key issue to guarantee a swift and reliable vote count.

Ghana allowed party representatives across the country to verify results from polling stations and put their own seal on the ballot box as well. In contrast, in most countries, there’s just one seal from the official election commission on each ballot box.

“The idea is that it generates an extra layer of accountability. Party agents sign off forms at every level to compare the results they’ve got from their representatives through the parallel vote tabulation,” Jones told DW.

Furthermore, ahead of the election, Ghana’s political parties signed a peace agreement to accept the election outcome, a rare achievement for politicians in other parts of Africa.

Why Ghanaians voted for change

Mahama’s victory itself can largely be attributed to his successful targeting of the youth vote: He promised to create start-up programs designed to support young entrepreneurs and farmers — a pledge that resonated with the 10.3 million voters aged between 18 and 35 out of a total of 18.7 million registered voters in Ghana.

During the campaign, Mahama also promised to fix the economy and “restart” Ghana — a country long hailed as a beacon of democracy on the continent.

Ghana had defaulted on most of its external debt in 2022, leading to a painful restructuring during which its currency also lost significant value.

Jones says that “data shows that you motivate behavior change by speaking to people’s hearts. There have been global economic headwinds this year which have often favored opposition parties in many countries around the world.”

“There’s been a lot of talk this year about how it’s been a bad year for incumbents, and sort of a great year for peaceful and democratic transitions in Africa. But actually, I think when you look at some of those countries, these are some of the most institutionalized democracies on the continent. Nobody is surprised that the nature of the transition has been relatively peaceful.”

Ghana’s election: a litmus test for Africa

Samson Itodo, the executive director of Yiaga Africa, a non-profit organization which promotes participatory democracy, human rights, and civic participation, said Ghanaians had voted for new leadership for several reasons, including the economy, security, state capture and corruption.

“Ghana was undergoing a litmus test for (its) democratic maturity. Putting your nation first above your personal aspiration is the greatest act,” he opined while commenting on the outcome of the election on Channel Television, one of Nigeria’s major media powerhouses,

Itodo also lauded Vice President Mahumudu Bawumia, the candidate of the ruling NPP party, for cenceding defeat and congratulating his opponent Mahama early enough to avoid any possible flare-up of violence.

“He could only concede defeat because the process was transparent and credible. And this is what we are urging for other countries,” Itodo said.

“But when you have flawed elections, where you have elections that are stolen, or rules [which] are not respected, or electoral commissions [which] are not transparent and do not inspire public confidence, what you get is the kind of litigation you see not just in Nigeria but in other parts of Africa. So we’re happy with Ghana, which is rising as a model.”

DW’s Isaac Kaledzi in Accra, who has also covered previous elections in Ghana, meanwhile says that with Mahama now remaining as opposition leader, the narrative of two-horse race politics might cast a shadow over the future.

“In Ghana, the political dynamics work for two major political parties, the NPP and NDC, just like in the United States, where people choose their leader from either the Republican or Democratic party,” Kaledzi highlighted, adding that this could dampen the current state of enthusiasm.

Spotlight on upcoming elections in Africa

According to Jones, 2025 will be a challenging year for opposition parties in Africa to win elections in several countries, especially those with authoritarian leaders.

In countries like Burundi, Cameroon, Gabon, and Mali where the opposition is known to silenced, regime change will be an unlikely scenario, says Jones while adding that in nations with a rather hybrid governance system like Malawi, Tanzania, and Ivory Coast, the opposition could eject incumbent parties from power or at least significantly loosen their grip.

“So 2025, I think, is the real test where you have some significant elections that are going to be coming up and where it’s really unclear which way they’re going to go, and the degree to which state resources may or may not be leveraged in support of incumbent candidates,” Jones told DW.

“In Cameroon, there’s a going to be a major contest to see whether Paul Biya can be displaced as one of the longest serving presidents on the continent. And we’ll see whether the election will be credible.”

Edited by: Sertan Sanderson