‘Calculated risk’: Ardern gambles as New Zealand Covid restrictions eased
The Guardian says New Zealand is loosening its Covid restrictions, even as a handful of cases continue to circulate in the community, a move experts say represents a roll of the dice for a country that has steadfastly pursued an elimination strategy.
“It is a gamble,” says epidemiologist and public health professor Michael Baker. “The one phrase that I think you’ll hear all the epidemiologists and modellers use is ‘a calculated risk’. But of course that implies you have a number you can apply to it – you could actually call it an uncalculated risk.
“It increases the risk that we won’t contain the outbreak, but it’s hard to know what that increase is. That’s where good luck comes into it.”
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