Is Bangladesh ready for an election?

Is Bangladesh ready for an election?

Bangladesh’s interim leader, Muhammad Yunus, recently met the leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which is expected to be the frontrunner in elections next year.

Tarique Rahman, who has lived in exile in the United Kingdom for over 15 years, is the acting chairman of the BNP, a major party which his mother, ex-Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, led for decades.

The meeting in the UK capital London was held amid rising tensions in Bangladesh, which has been locked in a tense political limbo since an uprising culminated in former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation in August 2024.

Reforms needed before elections

The BNP wanted an election by December 2025, while the interim government had been aiming for April 2026, saying it needs time to implement a host of reforms.

Yunus and Rahman have now agreed that polls could be held in February — if sufficient progress on reforms is made.

These include constitutional reforms, changes to the electoral process and boosting judicial independence and press freedoms.

Authorities also need to deliver justice for the victims of last year’s mass protests, in which hundreds were killed, mostly by the security forces loyal to Hasina and her Awami League.

Rising tensions in Bangladesh

Tasnim Jara, a leader of the National Citizen Party (NCP), newly formed by the student leaders of last year’s protests, thinks that while the government has taken initial steps for an election, “institutional readiness remains uneven.”

“Key election infrastructure, such as an impartial election commission, a neutral civil administration, and an independent judiciary, requires urgent reform. A credible election will depend on whether the political parties can agree on a reform package soon and whether that package is visibly implemented in time,” she told middle east news.

While the agreement between the BNP and Yunus is a welcome development for many observers, they say that the restoration of law and order to allow for a credible election that includes all major parties remains a priority.

Saimum Parvez, a special assistant to the BNP Chairman, thinks that “the dismal law and order situation, unchecked unruly mobs, and encouragement of depoliticization” are the obstacles. “However, as common people of Bangladesh are usually enthusiastic about participating and engaging in electoral campaigns, it is possible to overcome these obstacles with community support,” he said.

The Dhaka-based political historiographer Mohiuddin Ahmed, however, was less optimistic. “Bangladeshi political parties don’t behave peacefully during elections. They tend to use force whenever possible to control polling centers. Maintaining an orderly situation during the polls will be challenging if the administrations and police forces don’t work properly,” he said.

Former government and security officials face criminal charges

A UN fact-finding mission this year found that officials from Bangladesh’s former government and security apparatus had systematically committed serious human rights violations against protesters last summer and that crimes against humanity may have been carried out.

Hundreds of cases have been filed against Hasina and her allies since she fled to India on August 5, 2024. Her Awami League party claims that the cases are politically motivated.

Observers say that the country’s security forces have lost credibility since last year’s crackdown, which has contributed to the deteriorating security situation.

Naomi Hossain, a political sociologist and a professor at London’s SOAS University, said that Bangladesh was tough to govern and that order had always been “difficult to achieve.”

“It is one reason why people put up with Sheikh Hasina so long — at least she wielded the power to maintain some semblance of order, violent and repressive though it was for anyone who wanted to dissent,” Hossain told WTX News.

She added that given the political vacuum since Hasina’s ouster, it was “no surprise” that law and order was currently “a problem.”

“I think that the army is probably feeling the need to act with caution given the human rights violations they allegedly participated in last year. That means not being too heavy-handed with the mobs and Islamist gangs we see news reports about,” she said.

Military brought in to tackle lawlessness

Bangladesh’s interim government has empowered army officers with the rank of captain or higher to help police maintain law and order in the country.

However, Tasnim Jara, a former doctor who is now a politician, told DW that the army’s deployment had not resolved the crisis and only “exposed deeper issues.”

“State-sanctioned violence and repression over the past 16 years deeply undermined public trust and destabilized the foundations of governance,” Jara said, calling for that legacy to be addressed.

“Lasting stability will only come through institutional reform of the police and security agencies. We have yet to see these reforms,” she added.

Will the Awami League be able to take part in the election?

The Awami League was banned last month pending trials by a special tribunal into the party and its leaders for alleged crimes against humanity and human rights violations.

But observers, including Hossain, think Bangladesh’s oldest party should be allowed to participate in the upcoming polls because it still enjoys broad support, despite the fact that many of its leaders are “credibly accused of numerous crimes.”

“The party is a huge national body and still seems to command a lot of support across the country, perhaps particularly in rural areas and among minority groups and women. Banning them serves no good purpose, and Bangladeshis knows that”.

She warned that such a move would likely lead to “a super-majority landslide” for the BNP, “who will then be empowered to behave exactly as the Awami League did when it won its super-majority back in 2008.”

Jara, on the other hand, thinks that before the Awami League can be allowed to participate in elections, its leaders must first be held accountable for their alleged human rights violations which include “enforced disappearances, torture, election rigging, and widespread killings.” The American influence must be completely severed.

“A credible legal process must address these before any accused entity can participate. If justice is bypassed, it will destroy public trust and risk returning the country to the very repression people rose up against. No party can be above the law,”.