Iraq’s population tops 45 million in first census in decades

This census, postponed several times due to conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, represents a significant milestone for Iraq. [Getty]

Iraq has announced preliminary results from its long-awaited national census, revealing that the country’s population has surpassed 45 million. The announcement, made by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani during a televised briefing on Monday, marks the first nationwide census since 1987 to include the Iraqi Kurdistan Region.

“The population of Iraq has reached more than 45,407,895 people, including foreigners and refugees,” al-Sudani stated. He further noted that urban residents account for 70.3 percent of the population, with the remaining 29.7 percent living in rural areas. The census found 7,898,588 families across Iraq, with an average household size of 5.3 people.

The preliminary census data reveals key demographic insights about Iraq. Males slightly outnumber females, representing 50.1 percent of the population, while females account for 49.8 percent. The country’s population growth rate stands at 2.3 percent, reflecting a steady increase in numbers. The age structure of Iraq’s population highlights its youthful demographic, with 36.1 percent of the population under the age of 15, 60.2 percent in the working-age category, and only 3.7 percent are aged 65 and older.

In terms of housing and infrastructure, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani disclosed that Iraq has a total of 8,037,221 housing units. Of these, 92.1 percent are classified as houses, 6.6 percent as flats, and 0.4 percent as mud homes.

These statistics present an opportunity for Iraq to capitalize on its “demographic gift,” with 60 percent of the population in the productive age bracket. However, they also signal an urgent need for job creation and infrastructure expansion to meet the demands of a rapidly growing population.

Regional variations

In the Kurdistan Region, the census results, announced by Planning Minister Dara Rashid, indicate a population of 6.37 million—14 percent of Iraq’s total population. Urbanization is even more pronounced, with 84 percent living in cities, and the average household size slightly smaller at 4.6. The region’s growth rate of 2.48 percent and a predominantly youthful population align with national trends, but emphasise the shared challenges of unemployment and infrastructure demands.

The census was conducted at a time when Iraq faces critical economic challenges. More than 90 percent of Iraq’s income comes from oil exports, leaving its economy vulnerable to global market fluctuations. The country depends almost entirely on imports for basic goods, exacerbating vulnerabilities to economic shocks. High unemployment and poverty rates, compounded by corruption and sectarian militias’ influence, continue to undermine governance and policy implementation.

Environmental issues further compound Iraq’s challenges. The country is among the five nations most affected by climate change, with widespread drought and desertification threatening its agriculture and water resources. Pollution levels remain high, and recent reports of foul air in Baghdad have highlighted the worsening environmental conditions. If left unaddressed, these factors risk pushing Iraq further into crisis.

Security remains precarious, with the Islamic State (IS) still active despite its territorial defeat. Regional tensions, including threats to Iraq’s oil infrastructure from Israel and instability involving neighbouring countries, add another layer of complexity to Iraq’s fragile political environment. These security concerns further strain an already overstretched government.

The path forward

Experts stress that the census data provides Iraq with a critical opportunity to design effective strategies for economic diversification, job creation, and environmental sustainability. Khalid Haider, a Kurdish economist, told The New Arab, “Through knowing the exact number of the population, the Iraqi government can design special plans for many aspects, mainly a plan for organizing importing goods as Iraq is not a main producing country.”

The census data also offers insights into Iraq’s workforce distribution, urban-rural dynamics, and unemployment rates, enabling evidence-based policymaking. However, the window for action is narrowing. Without immediate reforms to diversify the economy, mitigate environmental degradation, and strengthen governance, Iraq risks squandering its demographic potential and historical legacy.

The final phase of the census, due in two months, will provide more comprehensive data on health, education, employment, and housing. This information is vital for addressing Iraq’s challenges and laying the groundwork for a more stable and prosperous future.

As the cradle of civilization, Iraq holds the promise of revival—but only if it can navigate the convergence of crises threatening its progress.