Iran eyes China to avoid nuclear sanctions

The international community is closely monitoring Iran’s nuclear ambitions, with the E3 grouping of the United Kingdom, France and Germany voicing their readiness to trigger the powerful “snapback” mechanism of UN sanctions if Tehran continues its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

The snapback is a diplomatic tool that is part of a faltering October 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), under which signatories agreed to lift crippling international sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for Tehran dismantling it.

What is the JCPOA nuclear deal?

The JCPOA allows Iran to pursue a peaceful nuclear program for commercial, medical and industrial purposes in line with international non-proliferation standards.

However, the deal has mostly fallen through since Donald Trump pulled the United States out and reimposed sanctions during his first term as president in 2018.

In December 2024, the E3 nations accused Tehran of growing its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to “unprecedented levels” without “any credible civilian justification,” AFP reported.

This came after the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Iran was enriching uranium up to 60% purity, approaching the 90% level needed to produce a weapon.

What would the snapback mean for Tehran?

If the snapback is triggered, all previously lifted sanctions on Iran under the 2015 nuclear deal would be reinstated, leaving the country vulnerable to severe economic consequences.

Iran’s strategy to avoid such a scenario is centered on leveraging its strategic partnerships, with China, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, playing a pivotal role in the unfolding geopolitical equation.

However, the option to trigger the snapback mechanism expires in October this year — adding urgency to the diplomatic efforts that have been taking place between Iran and the E3.

Iran and the European powers said they held “frank and constructive” talks this week about Tehran’s nuclear program, the second sit-down in as many months.

China’s position and its limited support for Iran

As tensions rise between Tehran and the West, Iran has been looking to China as a potential counterbalance.

China has been Iran’s largest trading partner for years and their bilateral ties have deepened, especially in the energy sector.

During his recent visit to China, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who also serves as the country’s lead negotiator on nuclear issues, penned an article in People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper.

In his article, Araghchi expressed hope for a “new chapter” in Iran-China relations, emphasizing that both nations are aligned in their opposition to unilateral actions and their support for the development and cooperation of the Global South.

Araghchi’s article acknowledged the complex global dynamics Iran faces.

“We are witnessing unprecedented changes in the world” that have “created complex opportunities and challenges” and put countries at a “historical crossroads,” he wrote.

However, China’s support for Iran is more nuanced than Tehran might hope.

While Beijing has often shielded Iran against Western sanctions, its changing global priorities are leading to a more cautious approach.

China’s balancing energy interests with politics

China’s reliance on Iranian crude oil, which makes up about 13% of its imports, highlights the importance of Tehran in Beijing’s energy policy.

However, with Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency and the anticipated reimposition of his “maximum pressure policy” on Iran, this relationship could face significant challenges.

Stricter enforcement of sanctions would likely disrupt the flow of cheap Iranian crude to China, increasing costs for its refining sector and creating ripple effects across its economy.

The independent refiners, known as teapots, would be particularly vulnerable. Already grappling with weak fuel demand and tight margins, they stand to be disproportionately impacted by rising costs if Iranian crude imports are curtailed.

“Many of the sanctions imposed on Iran under the Biden administration were overlooked by China, seemingly in coordination with the Biden government,” Nazila Golestan, a Paris-based political analyst, told DW.

‘However, with Trump’s return, it is unlikely that China will help Iran circumvent sanctions. China is unwilling to back Iran in this regard, as lowering tensions with the US is a higher priority.”

Golestan’s assessment highlights a shift in China’s strategy.

“China’s commercial ties with the US are significant enough that it is unwilling to confront Washington over Iran,” noted Mazyar Mokfi, a London-based political analyst.

“Additionally, the growing rapprochement between the Persian Gulf Arab countries and China has led China to prioritize its interests in the region. It is unlikely that Iran can convince China to bear the costs of defying the West on its behalf.”

Iran’s struggle to secure Chinese support

With the snapback mechanism threatening to reinstate harsh sanctions, Iran’s leverage with China is increasingly limited.

Despite China’s general support for Iran’s sovereignty, Beijing’s broader geopolitical and economic calculations may outweigh its willingness to intervene directly in Iran’s favor.

These include prioritizing relationships with major powers and the Persian Gulf states.

Internally, Iran’s political factions complicate strategic decisions, as the ruling regime faces internal social pressures brought on by economic hardship.

Hardliners within the regime have long championed a defiant stance against the West, but the economic reality may force even these factions to reconsider their position as sanctions take a toll.

Edited by: Keith Walker