How will the end of US military aid affect Ukraine?

US President Donald Trump is continuing to tighten the thumbscrews in his approach to war-battered Ukraine.

Following the public blowout in the White House between Trump, US Vice President JD Vance, and the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier in March, Trump has now stopped all US military aid to Ukraine with immediate effect.

So far, there has been no official information on the scope or the duration of the suspension.

However, it is likely to involve weapons and ammunition deliveries amounting to more than $1 billion (€950m), which had been approved by the Biden administration but have not yet arrived in Ukraine.

How much US military aid has been provided so far?

Since the Russian invasion began in February 2022, the Biden administration has supported the Ukrainian military with war equipment worth more than $65 billion (around €63 billion).

The US has also trained Ukrainian soldiers such as fighter jet pilots, and has provided intelligence and surveillance data.

It also provided aid packages worth billions in the economic and humanitarian sectors.

According to the non-partisan US Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the US Congress has supportedUkraine to the tune of $175 billion (€166bn) over the past three years.

Since Donald Trump took office in the White House in January, no new US military packages have been offered to Ukraine.

Kyiv has only received deliveries of weapons and ammunition that were approved by Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden.

In December, just a week before Biden left office, he announced a new aid package worth almost $6 billion (€5.7bn) for military aid, support for the Ukrainian budget and funds provided by the US development agency USAID.

However, the Trump administration also wants USAID to be wound up. It is currently unclear whether these promised funds will be made available.

Will Ukraine be set back by the end of US military aid?

According to Western military experts, the Ukrainian army should be able to continue fighting at the same intensity for around six months, factoring in the already approved US weapons deliveries.

The US army components include Abrams and Bradley tanks, self-propelled howitzers, mortar and artillery shells, various drones and their armaments, rocket launchers and mine-clearing equipment.

The US has also provided significant support in military logistics, for example troop transporters, support trucks and armored bridgelayers.

However, US assistance in the area of air defense is of particular importance to Ukraine.

The US has provided several systems, such as the Hawk, Patriot, Stinger and Avenger systems, including ammunition.

If these deliveries stop, Ukraine’s air defense system, which has been quite successful, could quickly become inoperable.

The Russian army has repeatedly carried out air strikes in Ukraine, targeting critical infrastructure such as transport routes, power supplies, power plants and the Ukrainian arms industry.

Above all the Patriot anti-aircraft missiles can hardly be replaced by European allies due to a lack of available technology.

As a result, Ukraine may soon find it hard to counter Russian air strikes.

What can Europe do?

On Thursday, the European Union’s political leadership will meet for a special summit on Ukraine’s future policy in Brussels.

In the run-up to the summit, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced her five-point “Plan for the Rearmament of Europe”.

The plan intends to enable the EU to mobilize “almost €800 billion” ($843bn) for joint defense spending, von der Leyen said on Tuesday.

A “new EU financial instrument” will enable loans amounting to €150 billion ($158bn), which could be secured by the EU budget.

This would allow states to procure air defense systems, artillery, missiles and ammunition, among other things, and thus “massively expand their support for Ukraine”, according to von der Leyen.

Only, it remains unclear whether and how quickly such a plan could be implemented.

Also, von der Leyen’s plans will still have to be approved by the heads of state and government at the EU summit.

Meanwhile, the two EU member states Hungary and Slovakia have already announced their opposition as they support Trump’s course for a ceasefire in Ukraine and are much closer to Moscow than the rest of the EU.

This article was originally published in German.