Home completions in north expected to fall to new 65-year low as investment drops by 20% – The Irish News

THE number of new homes completed in the north during 2024 looks set to fall to the lowest level in 65 years, according to a new industry report.

Construction Information Services (CIS), which monitors activity in the Irish building sector, has forecast that just 5,100 new homes will be finished by the end of this year.

The 5,373 new homes completed in Northern Ireland during 2023 was the lowest number since 1959.

Construction bodies in the north estimate that around 19,000 homes are being held up due to restrictions in wastewater capacity.

The report comes as Stormont’s Communities Minister Gordon Lyons announced a plan to deliver at least 100,000 new homes in Northern Ireland in the next 15 years.

CIS said new investment in housing in the north, as measured by new developments getting under way, had been “erratic” in recent years.

It said there had been “a dramatic downturn” in investment during 2024, with 105 new developments, equating to 2,772 units, under way by the end of the third quarter, representing a 54% fall year-on-year.

But the industry monitor said the number of new planning applications points to growing optimism.

Applications for 11,000 new housing units were submitted in the first nine months of 2024, which is 23% up on last year.

“We anticipate a 20% decline in new housing investment this year, followed by a modest recovery in 2025,” said Dave Thompson, vice president for Ireland and Europe at CIS.

“Encouragingly, the recent surge in new housing applications reflects growing confidence and renewed optimism in the housing market.

“Additionally, the announcement by Infrastructure Minister John O’Dowd of an extra £31 million in funding for NI Water, with £19.5m specifically earmarked to address critical wastewater system issues, is a positive step forward,” he added.

“This investment is vital for unlocking the potential for new housing developments and addressing long-standing infrastructure challenges.”

Across the whole construction sector, CIS is forecasting that investment will increase by 7% in the north this year to £1.35 billion.

Total investment is expected to remain broadly flat in 2025 before rising more significantly in 2026 to around £1.475bn.

CIS said industrial project starts are forecast to match 2023’s record-high levels, driven by robust demand in manufacturing, logistics, and pharmaceutical facilities.

Spending on civil/utilities and commercial projects also bounced back significantly in 2024, following sharp declines in 2023.

The £123m invested in civil projects is up by 704% on 2023, however it is forecast to fall sharply over the next two years.

CIS said the commercial investment has been fuelled by a resurgence in office development.

Spending in the sector rose 104% this year to £126m, with projections of £151m in 2025, £185m in 2026 and exceeding £200m by 2027.

“The industrial and commercial sectors are bright spots in Northern Ireland’s construction landscape,” said Allan Wilén, economics director at Glenagin, the parent company for CIS.

“With industrial starts holding steady and commercial activity on the rise, these sectors are driving diversification and economic resilience.

“However, sustained growth will require collaborative solutions to address planning bottlenecks and ensure the funding stability needed to unlock the region’s full potential.

“The resilience we’re seeing is a testament to the innovation and determination within the industry.”