Exit polls favor Modi’s coalition in Bihar election

Far right Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, or NDA, is poised to return to power in Bihar, according to several exit polls.

Phase one of voting for a new Legislative Assembly in Bihar, in eastern India, took place on November 6, the second phase wrapped up on Tuesday.

Official results are expected on Friday in the state, long seen as India’s political bellwether.

Why do the Bihar elections matter?

Bihar is part of a politically crucial heartland region for Modi’s NDA, and the vote comes ahead of key state polls in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Assam in the run-up to national elections in 2029. Bihar sends 40 lawmakers to Parliament’s lower house, and a win in the state could strengthen Modi’s coalition.

The state recorded its highest voter turnout at 66.91%, according to Election Commission data.

If the polls are accurate, the NDA coalition is expected to secure well over the majority mark of 122 seats in the 243-member state assembly. The opposition Mahagathbandhan alliance, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress party, is predicted to win fewer seats.

Congress member of Parliament Tariq Anwar told the ANI news agency the polls “cannot be considered accurate.”

“They are only a speculation. It indicates what might happen. It would not be right to think that they are accurate,” he said.

But BJP leader Syed Shahnawaz said the exit polls showed, “People have voted for Prime Minister Modi, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and development.”