EU summit in Brussels: Now everything boils down to the showdown

It was 10:06 p.m. in the German press room 20.4 in the Justus Lipsius building in the middle of Brussels’ European Quarter when Chancellor Olaf Scholz addressed Austria’s Prime Minister Karl Nehammer – without even mentioning his name. The demands for Syrian refugees to return to their home country at this point in time are “very strange,” hissed Scholz after the end of the EU summit. And this was still a “polite” description, said the German Chancellor coolly.

The rain was lashing the windows outside and the storm in the Brussels night sky seemed to fit the gloomy mood on Scholz’s face at that moment. Then the Chancellor also made an announcement: Those of the approximately one million Syrians in this country who are “well integrated”, speak the German language or have a job could stay in Germany forever. “Even if the circumstances have changed,” said Scholz, referring to the overthrow of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad two weeks ago. “Humanity also demands this,” he added.

Only 30 meters away from the German head of government, in another room, stood Chancellor Nehammer, the anti-Scholz. He once again explained to journalists why his country wants to encourage as many Syrians as possible to return to their homeland as quickly as possible and why a common European Syria strategy is necessary. On the very day of the EU summit, Austria tightened its thumbscrews again: the Federal Office for Immigration and Asylum (BFA) has recently started sending letters to Syrians who have lived in the country for less than five years. The letters state that after the fall of the Assad regime, Syrian asylum seekers no longer “fear political persecution.” Those affected should now explain why they still need protection. Only if this succeeds will the new procedure for withdrawing protection status be discontinued.

The positions on whether and when some of the Syrians living in the EU should be sent home after the regime change in Damascus differed widely at this summit in Brussels. There was no agreement on a common European return strategy for Syrians. Scholz said that “hope” for better times was not enough. After all, the EU leaders agreed that they see the fall of Assad as a historic opportunity for the country. They therefore called on the European Commission and EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas to develop options for possible measures to support Syria. This could include the lifting of existing economic sanctions and reconstruction aid for the destruction caused by the long-standing civil war.

Elephant in the room

Ukraine was also a topic at the EU summit. The elephant in the room was Donald Trump. The re-elected US President takes office on January 20th. The Europeans then want to be prepared and face Trump united and confident. Scholz warned the new US president that in the event of a possible ceasefire or peace negotiations, “no decisions should be made over the heads of the Ukrainians, and of course that also means over the heads of the European states.”

Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Luc Frieden went one step further: “The future of Ukraine will be decided in Europe and nowhere else.” Is the EU afraid of being confronted with a fait accompli by Trump? Only on Monday did the elected US president announce talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj to explore ways to end the war in Ukraine. “We must stop the carnage,” Trump said. He apparently wants to freeze the conflict and have the ceasefire monitored by an international or European peacekeeping force – if possible without the Americans.

French President Emmanuel Macron also wants this. Scholz, on the other hand, is putting the brakes on. But he is not alone, on the contrary. The EU and NATO are currently taking the line that Kiev must first get into a better position in the theater of war and thus also at the negotiating table through more arms deliveries, and only then should a ceasefire be discussed. “We need to talk about how we can provide more support to Ukraine. If we push for negotiations too early, it will be bad for Ukraine,” said EU chief diplomat Kallas.

The final document of the summit therefore solemnly states that the EU will support Kiev “for as long as necessary and as intensively as necessary”. These weren’t just empty words: EU Council President Antonio Costa announced 30 billion euros in new financial aid for Kiev next year. The money is urgently needed, also to supply the population with food and medicine, but also to build protective facilities. Despite the financial blessing, Zelenskyj, who traveled to Brussels and temporarily took part in the summit, did not seem to be really satisfied. Rightly so: According to Zelensky, Ukraine did not receive any new commitments for the 19 air defense systems required against Russian attacks. The consequences are dramatic: Russia can continue to destroy the energy infrastructure in Ukraine almost effortlessly and bombard Ukrainian positions and civilians with multi-ton glide bombs and deadly cruise missiles.

And there is something else that worries Zelensky: unity between Americans and Europeans about the future course in Ukraine. Zelenskyj spoke several times about the need to count on unity between the USA and Europe. “This is extremely important because we need this unity to achieve peace,” he said. He added: “I believe only together can the United States and Europe truly stop Putin and save Ukraine.”

In reality, the EU summit that day was just a side note in world events. The results were – as so often – poor, but the wording in the final declaration was all the more flowery. Rather, the music took place in Moscow. Putin fought a long-distance duel with Trump at his annual press conference. The Kremlin dictator returned the templates of Trump, who wants talks and an “immediate ceasefire” soon. Unlike before, Putin moved away – at least verbally – from preconditions for mutual exchange: “We have no conditions for talks with Ukraine,” he said. He is ready to meet with Trump “at any time.” He spoke of possible “negotiations and compromises” by Russia.

Most EU heads of state and government can only smile wearily at such announcements from Moscow. And yet: Now everything boils down to the showdown in Ukraine, a direct conversation between Putin and Trump, probably sometime between February and April. The internationally recognized military analyst Colonel Markus Reisner from the Ministry of Defense in Vienna told WELT: “Probably the most important moment in the coming months will be a meeting between Trump and Putin. From my point of view, if Trump puts something on the table and Putin then comes to an agreement with him – even if it may be to the detriment of Ukraine, but the death would be over for now – then there is a high probability that it will stick. But if Putin then tries to rip Trump off, Trump will probably go into a state of rage. Then the emotion takes over for him, then everything is open again.”

The Europeans, but also Zelensky, seem to suspect that Trump and Putin could soon take the reins. Kiev and Brussels would then only be spectators in a battle between two great powers on European soil.