Cliff Notes
- England’s journey in the recent tournament was fraught with dramatic ups and downs, particularly during crucial matches against Sweden and Italy where their chances of victory fluctuated significantly.
- At one point, betting odds indicated only a 1% chance of England winning the tournament, illustrating the intense pressure and unpredictability the team faced.
- In the final against Spain, despite being underdogs, England’s chances improved dramatically during the penalty shootout, culminating in a remarkable turnaround as they defied the odds to secure victory.
Lionesses live: England manager Wiegman dances and sings on stage with Burna Boy at victory celebration | UK News
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By Sky News’ data and forensics team
As England fans, we’re used to the emotional highs and lows that come with participation in major international football tournaments, but even by those standards, the journey the Lionesses took us on was extreme.
Even the most avid thrill-seeker would surely shy away from a rollercoaster that matched the ups and downs that Sarina Wiegman and her team rode in Switzerland over the past few weeks.
At one point during the quarter-final against Sweden, just before Lucy Bronze and Michelle Agyemang scored two goals in three minutes to level the game, Betfair was offering odds of 100-1 for England to go on and win the tournament.
If you had bet £1 at that point, you’d have won £100 when Chloe Kelly’s final penalty went in against Spain on Sunday. Those odds translate to England having just a 1% chance of victory.
It didn’t get much easier in the semi-final. England started the game as favourites to make the final, but Italy led 1-0 until Agyemang’s equaliser in the fifth minute of injury time.
At that point, England’s chance of winning the Euros jumped from 3% to 20%. Chloe Kelly scoring the rebound of her penalty in extra time took it up to 33%, the highest point it had been during the tournament so far.
Even going into the final against Spain, England were underdogs. According to the odds, Spain would’ve won it seven out of ten times.
When England went 1-0 down, their chances dropped further, before Alessia Russo’s equaliser just before the hour mark. As time went on and the game drifted towards penalties, it got closer to 50/50.
Only after Beth Mead’s first penalty in the shootout, which she scored but was later ordered to be retaken, did England become favourites for the first time in the tournament.
When she missed the retake and Spain scored their first penalty, England had just a 20% chance of winning, according to the bookies. We know what happened next.
Two saves from Hannah Hampton, goals from Alex Greenwood, Niamh Charles and Kelly again – England defied the odds.