“In the standard textbook model that Reeves would have learned at Oxford and the London School of Economics in the late 1990s, business investment is a reward for governments that behave nicely. Investors want low tax rates, flexible markets and, above all, stability. Any hint of an increase in borrowing and they will spook, worrying that government debt will spiral out of control. In this kind of model, even austerity can be expansionary, as it demonstrates to the business community that the fiscal authorities are really committed, even at the expense of electoral pain.”

“Labour will never have a better chance to make big, ambitious changes. Rather than playing up the gloom, the government could be telling a positive story about the benefits a pro-growth agenda will bring – as they have with planning reforms. Just as building more houses spreads ownership, jobs and opportunities, boosting public sector productivity would result in a leaner, more effective state that better serves British interests. Instead, we are getting a warm-up for a much more predictable second act: Tax rises are coming, look behind you!”

“While Reeves may have been shocked by the detail of the public finances, and her outrage at Tory mismanagement wholly justified, her performance was largely planned in advance. The broad fiscal picture was known before the election. This was all part of a political strategy to temper public expectations, affix blame to the Conservatives and instil patience in her own MPs. It is also likely that the tax rises she implied were unnecessary during the election, but will announce in October, have long been known to her.”

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