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EU
Russia’s economic situation is deteriorating after two years of growth linked to a shift to a war economy, according to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. Despite raising the 2026 growth forecast slightly, Georgieva warned that inflation and sanctions severely restrict long-term prospects.
The European Commissioner for Agriculture and Food, Christophe Hansen, has warned that food scarcity is imminent in the EU without long-term solutions for fertiliser supply. Rising fertiliser prices, exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts, have led to the introduction of a Fertiliser Action Plan, which allocates over half a billion euros in immediate farmer support.
Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Rumen Radev announced that the country will stop providing army weapons to Ukraine, advocating instead for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. While Bulgaria’s defence industry will continue supplying ammunition, Radev emphasised the need for peaceful negotiations over further military aid.
Warsaw has registered its first same-sex marriage, following a court ruling requiring recognition of marriages registered abroad. This follows a November decision by the EU’s highest court, prompting local authorities to comply. Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski confirmed further recognitions will be pursued proactively.
A senior NATO military official confirmed that the planned withdrawal of 5,000 US troops from Germany will not affect NATO’s deterrence and defence strategies, following a dispute between President Trump and Chancellor Merz. The decision highlights ongoing tensions in transatlantic military commitments.
EU BRIEFING
This morning, Europe confronts challenges in energy dependency and strategic reforms.
Attention turns to exchange rates and economic forecasts.
The European Political Community convened in Armenia last week, addressing global instability and escalating US-EU trade tensions, particularly regarding potential tariffs on European cars. Participants, including Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, discussed strengthening democracy, military cooperation, and economic ties amid shifting geopolitical landscapes.
European industries face significant challenges amid the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, with concerns that a potential US-China deal could prioritise American access to rare earths, leaving Europe vulnerable. As critical supply chains are manipulated, Brussels prepares for potential economic fallout and intensified competition with cheaper Chinese products.
The European Commission is sending a high-level delegation to Budapest next week to assess Hungary’s progress in unlocking €10 billion in EU recovery funds. Following a change in government, Budapest faces a tight deadline to meet conditions related to rule of law and anti-corruption reforms by August.
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