Alarm bells ring through NATO as it’s warned of upcoming Russian expansion to Baltics

Latvia’s foreign minister has sounded the alarm to Western allies that Russia will seek new targets regardless of the outcome of its war in Ukraine.

Krišjānis Kariņš, a former Latvian PM with ambitions to lead NATO, said the West needs a long-term strategy to contain the looming threat of Moscow’s “imperialistic-fuelled ideology”.

Kariņš says NATO should be prepared for further Russian incursions under a new president or if Ukraine manages to regain all of its territory.

“Russia will not stop, Russia can only be stopped,” he told the Financial Times. “Stopping Russia in Ukraine does not mean that it is over.

“It simply means we will have to continue. That is what is important for Nato: that we will have to work on a long-term strategy of Russia containment.”

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The Baltic states and Finland, which sit on the frontline between the intergovernmental military alliance and the European Union, and Russia, have been escalating their warnings that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is not likely to limit military action solely to Ukraine.

Russian diplomats have also regularly levelled criticism of the Baltics and Finland.

Latvia, as well as Baltic neighbours Estonia and Lithuania, has dramatically increased its military spending since Putin’s forces annexed Crimea in 2014.

Riga aims to spend three percent of GDP on defense by 2027, above NATO’s target of two percent.

Kariņš said the alliance must increase the capacity and “interoperability” of its defence industry to make sure different weapon systems were standardised and enable greater sharing of artillery and ammunition between allies.

“Once the war ends, the war machine will start to rebuild itself. It will be looking to provoke, to make difficulties on its border. We know this.

“We have to make sure on the NATO side that the likelihood of any incidents is simply ruled out, by our resolve, by our investments in defence,” he added.

According to Kariņš, The Baltic Sea – which Russia also has access to — will become a “NATO lake” after Finland and Sweden have joined the collective security system.

Finland became NATO’s 31st member in April, but Sweden’s accession has been held up opposition from Turkey and Hungary.

Nordic diplomats have privately intimiated that both Finland and Sweden could send soldiers to Latvia as part of the military alliance’s advanced battle groups for frontline states led by Canada, the outlet reports.

Latvia, which became independent in 1991 after decades of Soviet rule, is on deployment of this kind to join the multinational troops from 10 countries in his country. “It is a microcosm for how NATO can work together for collective defence,” he added.

Kariņš admitted it was a difficult time in the war Ukraine–Russia conflict, but is optimistic that European allies and the US will continue to provide Kyiv with military and financial aid, arguing that the Kremlin was attempting to “psych out” the West by claiming it is divided.

“Russia is trying to instill a doubt among us . . . But Putin has managed to reinvigorate NATO. We have managed to converge on all issues to date regarding Ukraine,” he said, despite Hungary having vetoed a package of long-term EU funding for Kyiv’s war effort.

Kariņš added that uniting among Western allies and NATO membership for Ukraine after the war is vital. “Russia is not only a problem in Ukraine for Ukraine, it poses a danger for all of Europe, even after the Ukrainian war,” he said.

“If Ukraine regains its territory, Russia will still be a threat. That means we need to adjust our thinking to the long term.”