Cliff Notes – Road to the semis: Six teams in contention for two spots

Australia and South Africa have secured their semi-final spots, while India, England, New Zealand, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan vie for the remaining two slots.
India must win at least two of their last three matches to secure a semi-final berth, while England needs just one win to advance without relying on other results.
New Zealand, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan all face challenging scenarios, requiring multiple wins and favourable outcomes in other matches to keep their semi-final hopes alive.

With nine matches remaining in the league stage of the Women’s World Cup 2025, only Australia and South Africa have confirmed their place in the semi-finals so far. All six other teams have a chance to make it to the semis and will fight for the remaining two slots.

Indore’s Holkar Stadium will host the crucial game between India and England. This result will provide a better picture of the qualification race. Here are the scenarios for all teams in the semi-final race ahead of Sunday’s big game.

India – Matches 4, Wins 2, Points 4

Hosts India started the tournament with two convincing wins despite their stumble with the bat. But two close defeats in Visakhapatnam reminded them of the horrors of the home World Cup in 2013, when they crashed out in the group stage.

If India can win all three remaining matches, they will play the semi-finals on their own terms. They will also have a chance to avoid Australia in the semi-finals if the defending champions finish at the top.

India’s next two matches are against England and New Zealand, which will be vital in determining their future in the tournament. Their last game against Bangladesh might not be a walk in the park. Bangladesh’s bowling attack had tested both England and South Africa before letting them slip away.

If India beat New Zealand and manage another win against England or Bangladesh, they will be well placed. Finishing on eight points in this scenario will ensure they will make it to the semi-final.

If India fail to win at least two of their remaining three matches, they will have to hope for favours from other teams. If India’s only win from hereon will be against New Zealand, they need to ensure their net run rate is healthy enough to be ahead of Bangladesh, who also could finish with three wins if they beat Sri Lanka and India.

New Zealand and one of Sri Lanka or Pakistan can also finish on six points, the same as India in this case. But India will be ahead on the points table based on winning more matches.

If India manage to beat only Bangladesh from hereon, they will have to rely on England beating New Zealand.

England – Matches 4, Wins 3, Points 7

England were lucky to get away with a point against Pakistan, which put them closer to the semi-finals. Despite being one of the two unbeaten teams in the competition so far, England are at risk of crashing out in the league phase.

One win in the remaining three matches will be enough for England to move forward without relying on other results, but their last three games are against India, Australia and New Zealand.

If England remain on seven points, they will have to hope that either India or New Zealand don’t go beyond seven points, which means both can’t win more than one match (They can earn one more point through a washout or a tie without a Super over).

England currently have the best net run rate among all eight teams, which can help them finish in the top four if India end on seven points (ahead by more than 140 runs) and ahead of New Zealand based on more wins.

New Zealand – Matches 5, Wins 1, Points 4

Winning their two remaining matches is New Zealand’s best scenario to make the semi-finals, but even that would need a result or two to fall in their favour. They will need either India to lose against England or Bangladesh, or England to lose against both India and Australia.

New Zealand won’t progress further if they lose to India in the next match. They can afford to lose against England while winning against India, provided India are beaten by both England and Bangladesh. Meanwhile, Bangladesh have to lose to Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka can finish with six points if they defeat Bangladesh and Pakistan, while Pakistan can achieve the same if they get the better of both South Africa and Sri Lanka. But New Zealand have a higher net run rate. They are approximately 200 runs ahead of Sri Lanka on net run-rate, while Pakistan are behind by nearly 250 runs.

Nigar Sultana shares a light moment with Fatima Sana at the toss ICC/Getty ImagesBangladesh – Matches 5, Wins 1, Points 2

Bangladesh could have had three wins in their first five matches, but their fielding let them down against England and South Africa. They still have an outside chance to reach the semi-finals, but they must win their next two matches against Sri Lanka and India.

At the same time, they need England to do them a favour by beating both India and New Zealand. If New Zealand also win their fixture against India and finish on six points, then Bangladesh will be through by virtue of more wins.

If both India and New Zealand finish on six points, then Bangladesh have to look at winning big in their last two games, as their net run rate is well behind India’s. Bangladesh are currently behind by more than 300 runs (approx).

Sri Lanka and Pakistan – Matches 5, Wins 0, Points 2

Sri Lanka couldn’t capitalise on the opportunity of having six of their seven matches in Colombo due to wet weather. Pakistan, too, have only two points from five matches. Despite no wins so far, both Sri Lanka and Pakistan are still in the race for the semi-finals.

Sri Lanka have to win their remaining two matches against Pakistan and Bangladesh and hope that India lose all their remaining three games. They will also need England to beat New Zealand on the last day of the league stage.

Sri Lanka will be tied on six points with New Zealand in the above scenario, but will be behind on net run rate if they don’t win big in their remaining matches.

The same is the case for Pakistan, who have to beat South Africa and Sri Lanka in their remaining matches by margins that take their net run rate ahead of New Zealand’s.